The Golden Report for Tuesday September 23
The day can only be described in one way: “High Intensity”
With just two days until the First Presidential Candidates Debate and as we near the 40-day mark in this election; as the economic bailout plan looks to have more opposition than support and throws into chaos the Congressional calendar; as President Bush addresses his eighth and final United Nations General Assembly and his would-be Republican Vice Presidential successor Sarah Palin meets—for the first time—with the key world leaders in our global community, today was a day when if you blinked for just a single moment you may have missed a new attack ad, a response, a press conference, a congressional testimony or an Bill Clinton interview.
It just doesn’t get much better than this.
We’ll start with the first campaign ad of the day, an Obama spot called “Destination,” which talks about McCain’s ties to lobbyists and his support for a tax-haven on the island of Bermuda. The issue of lobbyists in the McCain camp will come full circle by the time the day is through. It was a good attempt by the Obama campaign to tap into the high anxiety about the state of the American economy by re-introducing McCain’s connections to those whose own interests run contrary to the nation’s economic interests.
Here’s the McCain Campaign response, “Barack Obama’s ad cleverly ignores two key facts: his own campaign headquarters is provided by a company based in Bermuda, and is guilty of the very same off-shore benefits he’s attacking. Whether he is opposing additional oil drilling while decrying high gas prices or blasting earmarks despite his requests for a billion dollars in pork barrel spending for his home state, Barack Obama has a stronger record of hypocrisy than he does making change in Washington.”
And Joe Biden brought it up in a campaign appearance tonight in Woodbridge, Virginia; it is likely a new liberal talking point. (Along with the number of houses that McCain owns and the number, and home country, of cars—which we will get to in a bit), saying, “You know this continues something that has been a disturbing trend lately with John McCain – claiming the mantle of reform in public but promising business as usual in private.
“I want to give you one example that recently that came to our attention. Take the example of the most notorious tax loophole that exists in our law today. It’s this offshore deal - the Bermuda insurance loophole. Now what happens here is that big insurance companies say their headquarters are in Bermuda when in fact they’re in the United States of America, but by doing that they are able under the law to send the money that they earn in America off shore to Bermuda where they don’t pay any taxes on it. Now by the way folks this is no small loop hole these companies are evading between 4 and 7 billion dollars a year in tax liability. 4 to 7. They’re skipping out on billions of dollars of taxes. That money could be going to insure our children who lack health care, to make sure that our veterans as they come back to the VA that the VA is not underfunded, to rebuilding bridges that are crumbling around the nation – rebuilding our infrastructure.”
Yea, Infrastructure!
Back to our timeline of the campaign ads of this day, and we go to the first McCain ad, “Mum” arguing that Obama has not had an adequate response—in fact no response at all (except for high taxes)—along with his liberal allies. What is very interesting and extremely noteworthy in this ad is the connection of “McCain and his Congressional Allies,” which has been something that McCain has distanced himself from throughout the campaign. It has been odd that McCain has run against the Congress that he belongs to—he did so earlier this week calling out the Congress for failures that led to the economic crises—but now they seemed to have reversed themselves. Wonder what kind of a campaign strategy this is and what effect it will have.
Here’s the Obama Campaign Response, “This ad is laughable. If you believe John McCain, George Bush and the Republicans in Washington have led on reforming Wall Street and restraining CEO pay, I’ve got a bridge in Alaska to sell you,” said Obama-Biden spokesman Bill Burton.
And we know that we have entered a period of high intensity when each campaign ad, and each campaign appearance, and each new development in the country or the world—requires a statement from both campaigns and sometimes a rebuttal to their opponent’s statement.
More about McCain Advertising: it was reported this afternoon that McCain is now on the air in INDIANA, a traditionally solid red state where Obama is ahead marginally. Remember back to the initial strategy of the Obama Campaign-to make a play in red states in order to force McCain to go on the air and spend money in areas that he would usually not defend. Earlier this week, we saw Obama pull out of North Dakota and Montana (remember back to July 4th when the Obama Campaign spent the holiday weekend in BUTTE, Montana) but maybe their efforts in Indiana (and in North Carolina) have paid off. [UPDATE: A spokesperson for the RNC is denying that there is a McCain ad buy in Indiana, or at least is not confirming the story picked up now by Politico, yet]
In the third ad of the day, Obama went up with an ad in Michigan (although the size and scope of the ad was not announced—and it is likely that the campaign hoped that the ad would get a lot of play on cable news which, because of its nature and material, it likely will. The issue of how many houses McCain owns caused his campaign a bruise but really served to rally a slightly fractured Democratic party before their Convention. How will THIRTEEN Cars play in the middle of a $700 Billion economic bailout, rising unemployment rates and a record high national discontent rate? And how will the issue of foreign cars play in Michigan. It was a sharp and very tough ad from the Obama Camp—clearly showing that they are back on their game (first Bermuda, then Volkswagon…)
No response from the McCain campaign yet.
And just a few hours ago, the next Obama attack ad of the day, bringing up the issue of equal play, featuring Lilly LedBetter. The McCain response to the ad suggested that in Senator Obama’s Senate office there is a pay disparity between female and male staffers—an easy line that McCain could bring up in a forthcoming debate and that really needs to be fact-checked and put in good perspective.
McCain Statement, “Barack Obama claims he’s for equal pay for women, but women working in his Senate office earn an average of $9,000 less than men, while women in John McCain’s Senate office earn an average of nearly $2,000 more than men. American women understand that real leadership is about what you do, not just what you say.” — McCain-Palin spokeswoman Crystal Benton
The best place for the enterprising reporter to actually crunch the numbers is Sen. Obama’s page on Legistorm.
With the issues raised in today’s ads you wouldn’t know that the Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman sat in the hot seat of the Senate Banking Committee into the mid-afternoon facing the ire of Senators from both parties. It was clear that the lame duck Bush Administration is not going to get a free pass on a $700 billion bill and, because of that, it is becoming more clear that any legislation will require a coalition of support—a give and take from both parties. And the schedule is not helpful at all. It’s going to be quite a day on Friday—remember that key Congressman and Senators are surrogates for the respective campaigns and would really like to be in the war room at the University of Mississippi on Friday night. Granted that they have the extra hour and a half while the debate is going on to get into said room, it is going to be a tight squeeze to get the likes of Lindsey Graham, Claire McCaskill, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Eric Cantor on a plane and on cable television.
And coming full circle in the campaign day that was, the New York Times reports tonight that McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis’ lobbying firm has been receiving payment of $15,000/month from Fannie Mae, directly contradicting what McCain himself said in a Sunday evening interview on CNBC. Some immediate questions:
What is the first Obama Reaction? How fast before the first attack ad? Why hasn’t the McCain campaign released a statement defending/commenting yet? Will the media put a lot of play on this story? And ultimately, what does this mean for the future of Rick Davis as director of the McCain Presidential Campaign?
The high intensity of this race will, indeed, continue through the day on Wednesday.
Tonight on the Daily Show: The WJC interview taped yesterday.
Tomorrow on the CBS Evening News: Katie Couric’s interview with Sarah Palin.
Taking a look at the Electoral Map and today we examine the latest summation by the Atlantic’s Mark Ambinder, who finds 212 Likely Obama Votes and 190 Likely McCain Votes. That leaves the following states as what he calls “True Toss Ups”
NEVADA, COLORADO, VIRGINIA
He categorizes the following states as “Marginal” Toss Ups: FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, NEW HAMPSHIRE, WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA & OHIO.
Iowa, Minnesota & New Mexico Lean Obama; Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina & South Dakota lean McCain.
Ben Smith highlights a story from WASHOE COUNTY, NEVADA where, since November 2006, Democrats have registered 15, 730 new voters compared with Republican’s 2, 502. The Republican advantage in voter registration has shrunk considerably from 4, 658 to 3, 266. How will this affect the categorization of Nevada as a true toss up?
AND ONE MORE REASON WHY WE LOVE POLITICO, going back in the Congressional Record to 1999 and the Dean of the House, Rep. John Dingell, all but predicting the economic crisis today when the House debated the conference report for the deregulation in the Glass-Steagall Act, “"[W]what we are creating now is a group of institutions which are too big to fail. Not only are they going to be big banks, but they are going to be big everything, because they are going to be in securities and insurance, in issuance of stocks and bonds and underwriting, and they are also going to be in banks. And under this legislation, the whole of the regulatory structure is so obfuscated and so confused that liability in one area is going to fall over into liability in the next. Taxpayers are going to be called upon to cure the failures we are creating tonight, and it is going to cost a lot of money, and it is coming. Just be prepared for those events."
Wow. He was right.
Below, some new polling shows exactly how close this race is but that Obama has retaken a marginal lead.
Watch Ambinder’s ratings next week to see if he moves INDIANA (notice the McCain ad buy mentioned above), NORTH CAROLINA (with a very tight set of polling this week) out of Lean McCain. Also, New Hampshire back to True Toss Up.
Before the horserace numbers, this note from today’s LATimes/Bloomberg Poll: 79% of respondents think that the country is on the wrong track, the HIGHEST ranking EVER in the history of the Times Poll. Specifically when asked which candidate is better to handle the current economic crisis, the numbers are over double-digits: Obama 48/McCain 35.
And to the polls, set up by this Mike Allen Politico piece tonight.
Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 47/McCain 41
Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking: Obama 47/McCain 43
Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 48/McCain 48
Battlegrounds:
NBC/Florida: Obama 47/McCain 45
THE Q-POLLS (and OBAMA is leading in all of them but is not above 50% in any)
Michigan: Obama 48/McCain 44
Minnesota: Obama 47/McCain 45
Wisconsin: Obama 49/McCain 42
Colorado: Obama 49/McCain 45
That leaves the Real Clear Politics average at Obama 48.1/McCain 45.6, an Obama lead of 2.5
And what a day it has been. There are several other stories that didn’t make it into today’s Report but which deserve to at least be mentioned:
The campaign dust up (indicated by the McCain side) over Clean Coal and a Biden statement that he does not support it, in Ohio & the Midwest
The story about Sarah Palin being “protected” from the media and a growing number of news stories critical of the lack of media access (even pool access) to the VP candidate
The 4pm EST dueling news conferences from the two candidates—McCain’s first in nearly a month
The UN General Assembly meeting and Ahmadinejad’s interview with Larry King
The expectations that are being set (McCain downplaying his performance, already) ahead of Friday’s debate
And of course the extraordinary Hank Paulson/Ben Bernanke Hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee today.. Tomorrow it’s the House Financial Services Committee’s turn at Noon Eastern. And then there’s a Continuing Resolution to deal with....
posted by Chris Golden @ 10:57 PM
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