The day began with two president’s running a campaign for the White House. The day ends with one. Kind of.
John McCain knows how to steal the headlines of every cable news network and make every news producer go into a momentary phase of disbelief. Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic was an instant skeptic and evolved into a vocal critic as the day progressed; he recognized early what every American needs to know: that although McCain will claim that he was putting “country above party” in his action today, the suspension was full and ripe of politics, on many levels. First, there developed a consensus yesterday that as McCain differed with the President on the bailout plan, if it failed to garner enough votes in the Senate and it failed to pass the Congress, the burden and the fault would be on John McCain. Put that another way: this economic plan was up to McCain to pass; the buck was in his court. Second, there was a growing storyline that both McCain and Bush were late coming to the table to address the crisis (remember last week he was saying that the fundamentals of our economy were strong) and he was not laying out a specific plan. Third, public tracking polls and national and key state head-to-heads released today showed Obama regaining a lead, and that lead was growing. Fourth, the New York Times had a story on its front page today about the McCain Campaign Manager and his ties to lobbyist firms and receiving payment from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fifth, the McCain campaign managed the public appearances of Sarah Palin so much yesterday that their insistence on her media insulation became a story—and a potentially damaging one—itself. In total, they saw the campaign gap growing and saw Friday as the end of the road: if they lost on Friday , followed by a lackluster appearance by Palin a week later, coming back would be insurmountable.
So, just like the Grinch who said “I must stop Christmas from coming!” McCain said, “I must stop this campaign. I must stop this debate.”
The Hill reports that Congressional leaders may be near a deal and that House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank had a 10am meeting scheduled tomorrow. Appearing on a CNBC Special Report immediately following the President’s statement tonight, Frank was livid---no, irate---that the President has scheduled a summit for key leaders, and McCain and Obama (photo op?) for tomorrow morning at the White House.
McCain is saying tonight that he will NOT Attend the University of Oxford debate on Friday night (scheduled months ago) if an agreement is not worked out in Congress. The debate is at 9pm. He didn’t say anything about waiting until the bill is actually passed. What happens if an agreement is reached on Friday afternoon? Is the debate still on? The Commission is fervent in their belief that a debate will be held. The networks don’t have any other filler for the two hours of primetime.
I’ll be the first to admit that I see the shanniganism in what McCain is doing. But what about the average voter? How will this play? The first indicator of that is media coverage and although it is a lead story it is far from the level that surrounded the Palin pick. We have to wait to see how this plays out. At the very least, it was the riskiest move since the VP pick. One just wonders how many lives McCain has left (bad analogy, I know).
And speaking of Palin…if McCain is returning to Washington to broker an agreement, where is the Alaska Governor Going? Maybe some more national one-on-one interviews with female journalists since she has mastered Katie Couric. Not.
What makes the least sense is the timing. Why today? Today was not the day the crisis started. Today was not the day that things fell apart. Today was not the day the Stock Market Crashed. Today was not the day that Lehman Brothers failed. Today was the day when Paulson was grilled. Today was the day when the President gave the worst prime-time address of his presidency. Today was the day when polls certified an Obama lead. Today was the day when McCain decided to suspend his campaign.
But as the Obama campaign was quick to point out, the issue of consequential news occurring on the day of presidential debates has no historical bearing.
They also were right in saying that Obama reached out to McCain first at 8:30 this morning. McCain acted at 2:30 this afternoon. Obama held a very presidential looking news conference in response to the McCain action from earlier today.
As Ambinder suggests this evening, “what does a suspension of a political campaign” with 40 days to go before the national election (unless McCain argues for a constitutional amendment to extend that too) really mean? And my question: if the campaign is suspended, then why are there McCain surrogates and campaign officials appearing on television? Go back to your real jobs. Your campaign is taking a break.
I guess you can think about it two ways:
Scenario A) You are being interviewed for a high profile job. The interview process takes a week at the corporate headquarters with focus groups, town hall meetings and tough face to face interviews with CEOs and other industry leaders. Your big moment is on Friday of the week when you are to present your case to the entire corporation. But the company that you currently work for has been experiencing declining stock value for several weeks and although you can’t do anything directly to stabilize the falling value of your company’s stock, you decide to suspend your interview and go back to work. This is either viewed as being extremely loyal to your company, so much so that you are ahead of all of your competitors for the job, or it is seen as a ploy to gain some more preparation time before your big moment.
Scenario B) A major hurricane strikes the country while you are vacationing in Texas. (You are the President of the United States). You first say that the federal response has been terrific. Then you wait a week before making a dramatic return to Washington (stopping to look over the damage from your airplane). Later, your Administration pledges all that it can to solve the problems and works with both sides in Congress to pass a relief bill. But the damage is done. You were late to the scene. And you didn’t assess the situation as it was at the beginning. Your big illuminated speech in Jackson Square, overshadowed by “Heckuva Job, Brownie.” Your plan to return to Washington to broker an economic bailout plan. Overshadowed by “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”
There are sub-scenarios to both, of course. And like the Palin pick, I will be very interested in reading about the discussions within the McCain campaign leading up to today’s suspension decision. Was it thought through? Or was it a spur of the moment decision, another one for momentary gain and long term trouble?
So tomorrow all eyes are on Washington. First at the White House, with Bush and the two men who are vying to succeed him. Then to Congress, and attention on Dodd & Frank, Pelosi & Boehner, and those Senate Republicans. Who knows what the end of Thursday will bring; it has been quite a week already, as we go inside the 40 day mark before Election Day.
