Liveblogging the Ole Miss Debate

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 Live Blogging

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The First Presidential Candidates Debate

 

With instant polling questions, twitter updates and more

 

Beginning Friday Night at 8pm

 

On TheGoldenReport.blogspot.com

The Golden Report for Thursday September 25

What the Congress haveth, the Congress taketh away.

 

What the Candidate suspendeth, the Candidate brings back.

 

After speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative this morning, John McCain suspended his political campaign. What that exactly remains is open to interpretation—but it did not mean removing his advisors and surrogates from cable television appearances and it did not mean that there is any mention of the word “suspension” on the front page of johnmccain.com. It also didn’t stop Sarah Palin from holding her first question and answer session with reporters—from Ground Zero in NYC—nor the candidate from being on all three evening newscasts, along with his opponent tonight.

 

By mid-afternoon word came in that a bi-partisan agreement had been reached on what we call here, for simplicity and a good deal of reality, an economic bailout package. The plan seemed to be that Congressional leaders would meet their respective presidential candidates with the current President and Vice President at the White House to finalize and announce it. Then word started coming that John Boehner was saying that he and House Republicans had never agreed to the package. Then just after 4pm the White House meeting took place, and by the reporting of George Stephanopolous and others, it was a contentious and raucous meeting that, if anything, deepened the divisions. McCain left first; then Obama; and both went to their respective hotels to record interviews that led all three evening newscasts tonight.

 

Just after 8pm, Sen. Dodd convened a new meeting of Senate Banking Committee leaders and Treasury Department officials on Capitol Hill; Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner also met in the early part of tonight. By all accounts, negotiations are ongoing. Congress is up against a self-imposed deadline for before the opening of markets on Monday. But now they are up against a very real political deadline as well; it is unclear what happens to John McCain if House Republicans succeed in foiling the bi-partisan agreement that was in place early this afternoon. The entire premise for the media spectacle of suspending his campaign to return to Washington to fix the problem will be lost. This is the case if an agreement is not yet worked out and McCain decides to fly to Mississippi for the debate tomorrow night (Just asking: when did his debate prep occur this week? Or is he really going to enter the first debate without having done a mock debate with a stand-in Obama?), or if Obama holds an essentially two-hour conversation with Jim Lehrer with an empty chair sitting next to him.

 

But as we all know in politics, a day is a lifetime, and we are now just under 24 hours away from the start of the First Presidential Candidates Debate.

 

One Machiavellian thought: Was the House GOP opposition, led by John Boehner today, meant as a short-term pause to the bill—and will he drop the opposition tomorrow in time for McCain to be declared a hero and fly triumphantly to Oxford?

 

(In some political circumstances, I think that would have been a scenario to consider. But I really do believe that in this case the opposition to the bailout runs deep, strong and passionately in many from the Republican Party and they are acting entirely based on principle, with only a little dose of politics.

 

To Today’s polling data:

Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 46/McCain 46

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking: Obama 47/McCain 43/Undecided 8

Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 49/McCain 46 (the highest level for Obama in this poll since July)

 

Rasmussen-North Carolina: Obama 49/McCain 47

CBS/New York Times National head-to-head: Obama 48/McCain 43

 

National Journal Swing State Polls:

Michigan Obama 47/McCain 39

New Hampshire Obama 44/McCain 43

Pennsylvania Obama 43/McCain 41

 

The Real Clear Politics Average: Obama + 3.3

And in the RCP electoral map, changes today to Michigan, going back to Lean Obama from Toss Up (It had been moved back to Toss Up from Lean Obama yesterday, and to Lean Obama from Toss Up the day before)

Also West Virginia from Solid McCain to Lean McCain and North Carolina from Lean McCain to Toss Up

 

And it looks like the night of negotiations on Capitol Hill have ended and talks will resume at 11:30am tomorrow. It will be a very interesting day which may begin in Washington and end in Mississippi.

Happening Now...

A historic meeting taking place at this hour at The White House, where President Bush, VP Cheney, Sen. John McCain, Sen. Barack Obama and senior Congressional leadership sitting around the Cabinet Room table. At the beginning of the discussion, which is expected to wrap up shortly, President Bush had the following remarks:

 

"I want to thank the leaders of the House and the Senate for coming. I appreciate our presidential candidates for being here, as well.

We are in a serious economic crisis in the country if we don't pass a piece of legislation. I want to thank the spirit of bipartisan cooperation that's taking place here in Washington. One thing the American people have to know is that all of us around the table take this issue very seriously and we know we've got to get something done as quickly as possible. And this meeting is an attempt to move the process forward. My hope is that we can reach an agreement very shortly.

I want to thank the Secretary of the Treasury for working hard with the members. I thank the members for working long hours like they've been doing to come up with a solution that's bipartisan and that will solve the problem."

 

Earlier this afternoon, it looked as if a bi-partisan deal had been struck, however since then there have been rumors of opposition by House Republican Leader John Boehner and other Congressional Republicans. I am live twittering the dramatic and fast-moving events of the afternoon and you can view those in the right hand column on the blog or at www.twitter.com/chrisgolden

 

 

A Look at Wednesday's Polling Data

A late night/early morning addendum to Wednesday’s Golden Report, with some polling numbers:

 

The Tracks:

 

Gallup Daily: Obama 47/McCain 44

Rasmussen Daily: Obama 49/McCain 47

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48/McCain 42

·         Key- Obama’s largest lead in that poll since it was started 2 weeks ago

·         Key- Obama has taken the lead among WHITE WOMEN, from a 37-53 disadvantage last week to a 46-45 advantage this week.

 

The National Head to Heads:

 

NBC/WSJ: Obama 48/McCain 46

ABC/WashPost: Obama 52/McCain 43 (outlier)

LaTimes/Bloomberg: Obama 49/McCain 45

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: Obama 45/McCain 39

 

Time/CNN Swing State Polls:

 

COLORADO: Obama 51/McCain 47

MICHIGAN: Obama 51/McCain 46

MONTANA: McCain 54/Obama 43 [John King was in Montana reporting on the poll for CNN today. One wonders if they could have found a better place for him]

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53/McCain 44

WEST VIRGINIA: McCain 50/Obama 46

 

Rasmussen Swing State Polls:

 

COLORADO: Obama 50/McCain 47

NEW HAMPSHIRE: McCain 49/Obama 47

 

[what is going on in New Hampshire?—the second poll this week with a McCain lead?]

 

All of this brings the Real Clear Politics Advantage to Obama + 3.5. In their electoral map today, Michigan moved from Lean Obama to Toss Up (after moving to Lean Obama just two days ago). Colorado moved from Toss Up to Lean Obama.

 

But of course today was a potential game changer in the race so all of these polls are meaningless now.

More Hoyer--and a Track Analogy

And like the Majority Leader says, we are working around the clock just like Congress to understand what exactly is the best response to this economic crisis.

 

Hoyer Statement on McCain's Announcement to

Suspend Campaign, Delay Debate

---

WASHINGTON, DC - House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (MD) released the following statement today following the announcement that Sen. McCain will suspend his presidential campaign and wants to delay Friday's scheduled debate:

 

"Congress is working in a bipartisan manner around the clock to develop the best response to the economic crisis.
 
"We are making progress and injecting presidential politics in this critical issue would not be helpful to quickly producing the best proposal for the American people.
 
"Senator McCain sounds like a man in a 100 yard race who is 50 yards out, 25 yards behind and wants to suspend the race.

 

"With the election only a few weeks away, the American people deserve to hear from the presidential candidates on a variety of issues. The best forum for this type of discourse is a debate and the campaigns owe it to the American public to proceed as planned.

 

"Senator Obama called Senator McCain this morning to ask him to join in a joint statement of principles on a response to the financial crisis.  It would be helpful for Mr. McCain to follow Mr. Obama's lead."

Hoyer Statement on Presidential Address to the Nation

Key line: “Congress continues to work around the clock”

 

Today, Thursday, is a key day for Congress to reach an agreement. The time is now.

 

[Note: In the rush to get this statement out, the original version had “accountability” spelled wrong. It is corrected the version below]

 

Hoyer on President Bush's Address to

Nation on Economic Crisis

---

WASHINGTON, DC - House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer made the following statement tonight in response to President Bush's address to the nation:

 

"I am pleased that President Bush finally addressed the nation tonight.

 

"The most serious economic challenge in generations demands presidential leadership.

 

"It was imperative that the President explain to Americans, who are rightly frustrated, angry and resistant to offering up their tax dollars, why it is in their best interest to quickly, decisively and boldly respond to the financial crisis on Wall Street.

 

"Congress is working around the clock to improve President Bush's proposal to include strong oversight and accountability provisions, protections for taxpayers, limits on the compensation of CEOs who participate, and assistance to homeowners to help stabilize local economies to the benefit of all.

 

"We will continue working until we have a bipartisan solution that will help all Americans by putting our economy back on the road to recovery."