The Golden Report for Saturday September 27

Was it a tale of two debates? The first one where those who watched thought McCain won and the second one where Independents and those who were watching solely to see if Obama could pass the so-called “commander-in-chief” test did. In that case, Obama passed the test—and the media started to pick up on moments during the debate when McCain appeared to talk down to Obama, never glancing at him and not engaging in a civil dialogue (as prompted by the moderator, Jim Lehrer).

 

The reviews will continue to come in over the rest of the weekend, and tomorrow’s three day average tracking polls will be the first to pick up the post-first debate effect.

 

But what we know is that the debate will probably not be considered a game changer; its long term effect will be minimal on the course of the campaign. It adds more importance to the next two debates, the town hall meeting moderated by Tom Brokaw and the final debate in New York moderated by Bob Schieffer. Before then, it’s the much-anticipated vice presidential candidates debate from St. Louis on Thursday night.

 

McCain returned to Washington after the debate last night (the press plane landed at Dulles Airport at 4:30am) and stayed in his apartment today making phone calls regarding the bailout debate package still being negotiated between the House and Senate. His campaign released a new ad which brings up the issue in the debate last night about cutting off funding for troops in the war zone, but as was pointed out today—as opposed to Obama’s ad released today specifically using clips of Obama’s performance in last night’s debate—the McCain could have been, and likely was, crafted before.  

 

After working throughout the night last night, still no indication that the negotiators are anywhere closer to agreeing on a bailout package. Nancy Pelosi made it clear today that she wants one soon (although her timeline of tonight is rapidly slipping away). The artificial but  increasingly real deadline is 6pm tomorrow, when Asian markets open and where the Congress essentially holds the power to prevent the beginnings of a worldwide sell off. If Congress is not close to a deal tomorrow and fails to meet the 6pm deadline then there will be real speculation as to what that could mean for the stock market come Monday. Unclear would what happen if a deal was reached during the day on Monday. According to reports this afternoon, negotiators were working on 17 unresolved issues—unclear how many remain to be worked out.

 

And Paul Newman has died. From the New York Times Obituary which will be printed in the Sunday papers tomorrow, “If Marlon Brando and James Dean defined the defiant American male as a sullen rebel, Paul Newman recreated him as a likable renegade, a strikingly handsome figure of animal high spirits and blue-eyed candor whose magnetism was almost impossible to resist, whether the character was Hud, Cool Hand Luke or Butch Cassidy.

He acted in more than 65 movies over more than 50 years, drawing on a physical grace, unassuming intelligence and good humor that made it all seem effortless.” Among the greatest legacies that Newman leaves behind is Ashford’s Hole in the Wall Gang Camp, and his iconic line of Newman’s Own Organic Lemonade!

Saturday's Tracking Polls

*Note: does not reflect last night’s debate*

 

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49/McCain 44

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50/McCain 44

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 48/McCain 43/Undecided 7

                Within this poll, Obama is favored among Independents, 55-29

 

 

The Golden Report for Friday September 26

What a day.

 

It began in Washington with the debate over an economic bailout package that seemingly faltered yesterday afternoon and last night and that initially sparked a Wall Street sell off today. After a tense morning, which included a nationally televised White House statement at 9:35am EST just after the markets opened, the consensus built that a bailout plan would be agreed to by 6pm on Sunday evening and Congress will work all weekend. That moved to reassure Wall Street which rallied in the final hour today.

 

With that as an undercurrent all week, prompting the McCain to move to suspend their campaign and a primetime presidential address to the nation, neither campaign had the opportunity to set expectations and the media did not have the privilege of talking up this debate ad nausea over the last few days. The big question now is how quickly attention will pivot from the economy to foreign policy and the issues raised in this debate (if at all), and to that extent the largest question, To what extent (if any) does this debate matter in the long run?

 

Halperin’s headline, “Engagement but No Big Moments”

 

The New York Times 1130pm lead, “Senator Barack Obama made a stinging attack on the Bush administration’s economic management on Friday night — and, by extension, Senator John McCain’s ties to Mr. Bush — and Mr. McCain countered by painting Mr. Obama as a typical tax-and-spend liberal during the first debate of the general election campaign.” (No mention of foreign policy)

 

The Washington Post, live coverage lead, “Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) vigorously clashed in the first general election debate of a tight presidential contest tonight, tackling the national economic crisis and then pivoting to an increasingly heated series of exchanges over policies in Iraq and Afghanistan”

 

The Chicago Tribune liveblog lead, “It's entirely possible that we may have seen a draw tonight, in the first of the presidential election debates of the season”

 

BREAKING: First CNN Flash Poll (it means nothing, I’ll repeat, nothing…but it will drive the media conversation around the question “Who Won”): Obama 51/McCain 36. But even the most casual observer can question the validity of a poll released in less time than the entirety duration of the debate itself.

 

Also, Mark Halperin’s Scorecards are in: Obama gets an A-, McCain a B-

 

Many more overnight flash polls and analysis to come throughout the night and tomorrow morning.

 

Right now, a few points about the debate tonight, in no particular order:

 

Obama held his ground. McCain climbed a mountain and kept pushing rocks down the hill to crush Obama. It’s up to the voters to decide if the rocks hit him or just miss. McCain was completely in control of the second 2/3 of the debate—the sections on foreign policy. He used his depth of experience and his knowledge of personal history to draw a clear contrast between his campaign and that of his opponent. Many times, Sen. Obama was left having to agree with McCain, and the McCain Campaign is already circulating a YouTube video.

 

This was an hour and a half about pure substance. A few cheap jabs from McCain and Obama (presidential seal, etc) but for the most part it was all about the issues and that was a welcome relief from lipstick on pigs etc.

 

Obama definitely appeared presidential and probably helped tremendously with those who questioned his ability to be Commander in Chief. Did Obama answer their fears? Did he cross the Commander-in-Chief threshold that has been so talked about?

 

BODY LANGUAGE: In the first section on the economy, Obama looked directly at the camera and spoke to the American people. Obama addressed McCain directly by name many times. McCain rarely looked at his opponent. McCain used his signature line, “My friends” only once. McCain did appear to grimace at times when the split-screen was shown as Obama was answering his questions, he also grinned and laughed. Obama was more serious. The debate itself was subdued, although McCain held an upper aggressive hand for most of the latter 2/3.

 

By my count, perhaps the only new policy announcement tonight was McCain’s suggestion that he would advocate for a spending freeze except for defense and veterans.

 

Iraq was first mentioned in the debate which was suppose to be about foreign policy at 33 minutes in, and first brought up by Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton’s name was first mentioned one minute later, by John McCain.

 

Taken Before Today’s Debate, the Tracking Polls of the Day:

Gallup: Obama 48/McCain 45

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 49/McCain 42/Undecided 7

Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45

 

Tomorrow’s tracking polls will not really pick up the debate tonight. Sunday and Monday’s tracking will be key. But by then news will likely be complicated by the impending passage (or failure) of an economic bailout bill.

 

Senator Kennedy has now been released from a Cape Cod Hospital after suffering a seizure this evening caused by complications from medication for brain cancer treatment. John McCain made a reference to Kennedy’s hospitalization at the beginning of the debate.

 

And not to get lost in any of this: Washington Mutual failed last night, becoming the largest bank failure in American history. It’s assets were quickly sold to JP Morgan. Now all eyes are on a possible CITI/Wachovia deal. And bailout negotiations on the Hill get no less intense as the weekend begins.

 

And as the flash polls continue to come in (and CNN’s is extremely interesting), we’ll call it a night. Be sure to catch the liveblog archive below and tune in again on Tuesday night for the Biden/Palin Vice Presidential Candidates Debate, where there will be intense interest and enormous attention.