The Golden Report for Monday September 29

Over the past three weeks, we’ve had many days that have been undoubtedly significant and historic in their own right. Put today again in that category—somewhere near the top. How it unfolded:

 

1)       This morning on “Squawk Box,” House Majority Leader Hoyer refused to commit to saying that the Emergency Economic Recovery Act (“Bailout”) bill would pass the House when it was brought up for a vote later in the day although by his body language and demeanor he gave every indication that he trusted it was on a path to passage.

2)       President Bush used a 7:35am EST statement, which was carried live across the national networks, as the beginning of a multi-hour, final-push lobbying effort to House Republicans—which may have either helped or hurt the bill’s final fate (could it have empowered House Republicans to rise up and defy the President)?

3)       The House convened at 8am EST and planned to vote on the recovery plan at 12:30pm before recessing for the Jewish Holiday.

4)       Speaker Pelosi took to the floor at about 12:15pm as the final speaker before the voting began and gave a scathing speech which has been cited as Republicans as “ubber-partisan”  although looking at the language again it was not unlike what she said after the bi-partisan agreement was reached on Sunday afternoon.

5)       It might have been the most intense roll call vote of the 110^th Congress in the House of Representatives. In the end, it failed, 205-228.

6)       There was a moment during the roll call when political observers and Wall Street advisors alike both reached a moment of realization that the bill would not pass today—and that set off a tremendous sell off. The three networks took the air in the 2:30pm hour airing special reports on what was an almost immediate 700 point dive southward.

7)       Over the final 90 minutes of trading, the Dow was able to recover about 200 points which it ended up giving back when the final trades were calculated after the 4pm close.

8)       The day ended being the single largest point loss in Wall Street History, and the 17^th largest percentage point decline. CNBC and FBN remained live on the air until 11pm EST.

 

The questions now:

• Where do we go from here? What is the legislative future of the economic recovery legislation? Will it simply be a re-vote or will there be further negotiations?
• More importantly, what does this mean for the financial industry and the economy as a whole?
• What are the worldwide reverberations? When America coughs, the world gets a cold, as the saying goes.
• Politically, what is the impact on the presidential campaign: especially considering that the McCain Campaign was citing their candidates work in the passage-that-wasn’t of the bailout bill early this morning
• And for history, is this another tremendous failure for the Bush Administration and its policies?

 

From Halperin’s morning show summary this AM, “On “Fox and Friends,” McCain aide Pfotenhauer said McCain “very quietly behind the scenes” worked toward the financial package, then went straight to Friday’s debate.”

 

So, after making such a big deal of suspending a presidential campaign and returning to Washington to work on a deal, and then embracing the deal once it came to be, McCain now finds himself in a situation when TWO deals have become unraveled since he became actively involved. We’ll continue to see how this plays with the American people, leading up to the town hall meeting one week from tomorrow night.

 

Today’s Tracking Polls:

Gallup: Obama 50/McCain 42

Rasmussen: Obama 50/McCain 45

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 47/McCain 42/Undecided 8

Real Clear Average: Obama + 4.8

Real Clear Electoral Map Changes: Pennsylvania from Toss-Up to Lean Obama

 

Rasmussen/Fox News Battleground State Polls released today, showing still a very close race in all of these key battlegrounds, but definitely an Obama advantage—in a poll which is skewed to the Right:

Pennsylvania: Obama 50/McCain 42

Ohio: McCain 48/Obama 47

Florida: McCain 47/Obama 47

Virginia: Obama 50/McCain 47

Colorado: Obama 49/McCain 48

 

In looking at where the electoral map stood this morning, Chuck Todd asked the most political-junkie question of all, “Will we know by midnight?”…of course referring to the results of the election 36 days from now.

 

Majority Leader Hoyer’s Statement on the House Schedule for the rest of the week:

““At this time, the House is scheduled to meet at noon on Thursday. 

"However, whether the House will consider legislation regarding the economic crisis has not been determined. 

"We will continue to work around the clock in a bipartisan manner to forge a solution to the serious threat confronting the economic security of millions of American families.”

 

Obama ads released today, attacking Carly Fiorina and tying her to the golden parachutes on wall street and defending clean coal record.

 

John McCain & Sarah Palin were interviewed jointly on the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric this evening, as the non-economic campaign storyline of the day was the “loss of media control” the McCain campaign had experienced over the candidacy of Sarah Palin—just days before she is to meet Joe Biden in St. Louis. Reporting has it that McCain’s handlers are now with Palin at the McCain Ranch in Sedona undergoing intensive debate prep. REMEMBER: Expectations are being set ridiculously low for Palin, which means that even holding her own ground against Biden will mean a dramatic victory. Unclear at this point whether or not a Palin debate win is a game changer for the overall presidential race.

 

Tomorrow’s Front Page of the New York Times, a two-line, six-column banner headline with a (more detailed) timeline of the events at the beginning of today’s report above the fold.

 

President Bush has a statement on the economy scheduled for 8:45am EST.

Monday's Tracking Polls

Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 50/McCain 42

Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 50/McCain 45

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking: Obama 47/McCain 42/Undecided 8

                Better Job Handling Economy: 44/38-Obama (Fri: 48/34 Obama)

 

Coming up at 6pm: Rasmussen Polls from swing states in FL, VA, CO, PA & OH

 

The Golden Report for Sunday September 28

It looks like a deal. Speaker Pelosi had set a Saturday midnight deadline for agreement on the components of a bailout deal, and at 12:31am, the AP moved that deal had been reached—or at least had in what was a “verbal agreement of understanding” The staff went to work and shortly after 4pm the text of the as-yet-unnumbered bill was released in a 106-page form. And after caucusing for an extended period of time this evening, House Republican Leaders have signed on to the measure, asking “as many of our colleagues whose conscious will permit” (Boehner) to do the same. The bill looks on a track to pass the House on Monday and the Senate on Wednesday. The news conference by House and Senate leadership occurred at 5:30pm EST and ended just minutes before Asian stock markets opened their new trading week; no doubt providing a boost of confidence around the world. Watch the Opening on Wall Street tomorrow to see how the news of a final agreement is received, and watch Wall Street’s reaction when the House votes on final passage, sometime before 1230pm EST, when Majority Leader Hoyer said is the target for recess.

 

Both Presidential Candidates have reacted to news of the agreement, giving a tacit nod on their respective Sunday Show appearances (Obama-Face the Nation, McCain-This Week) when word of a verbal agreement was reached this morning

 

The Obama Campaign put out a very thorough statement tracing the litany of this past week’s negotiations and the extraordinary caution that he has taken in deciding to support this deal:

 

“The breakthrough between Congress and the Administration is the culmination of a sorry period in our history, in which reckless speculation and greed on Wall Street and lax oversight from Washington led to a meltdown of our financial markets. But regardless of how we got here, a failure to deal with the current crisis would have devastating consequences for our economy, costing millions of Americans their jobs and retirement security.

 

To understand how this tentative deal was reached, it's important to remember how this all began. The Bush Administration initially asked for a blank check to respond to this problem, which I strongly opposed. It would have been unconscionable to expect the American people to hand this Administration or any Administration a $700 billion check with no conditions and no oversight when a lack of oversight in Washington and on Wall Street is exactly what got us into this mess. If the American people are being asked to pay for the solution to this crisis, their tax dollars must be protected.

 

That is why over the past ten days, in conversations with the President, Secretary of Treasury and leaders of Congress, I laid out the four core principles I believed had to guide any solution: oversight by an independent board; protections for taxpayers to ensure that they are treated like investors and that they receive any profits - and recoup any losses - from this plan; measures to help homeowners stay in their homes; and rules to make sure CEOs are not being rewarded at taxpayers' expense. While I look forward to reviewing the language of the legislation, it appears that the tentative deal embraces these principles.

 

When taxpayers are asked to take such an extraordinary step because of the irresponsibility of a relative few, it is not a cause for celebration. But this step is necessary. Now Washington has to show the same sense of urgency in dealing with the crisis facing Main Street and the middle class by passing an emergency economic stimulus plan that would create jobs by rebuilding our crumbing roads; shore up flagging state budgets to prevent drastic cuts in education and health care; and extend expiring unemployment insurance benefits for those who've lost their jobs in this downturn and cannot find new ones.

 

One final point. If elected President, I will order a thorough review of this plan to make sure that it fully lives up to the principles I've laid out. And I will also move quickly to upgrade our financial regulations for the 21st century, establishing new rules of the road and tougher oversight to ensure that the American taxpayers are never again forced to put their money and their futures at risk because of bad decisions in Washington and on Wall Street.”

 

A Summary of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 here (released from the Dem Party) and a section-by-section analysis of the legislation is available here.

 

The full text of the draft legislation is available here

 

My own key points from reading the draft are presented a few posts down on the blog.

 

 

Tomorrow, the campaign continues, with McCain/Palin in OHIO and Obama in DENVER and NEVADA. But attention at least at the beginning of the day will remain on the economic bailout bill—and President Bush has a White House statement scheduled to be delivered at 7:35am. .