The Golden Report for Tuesday September 30

Leave it to the Senate. After an entire Congress of stalemates and non-consensus, failure to pass any of the bills on the Democratic agenda and a tremendous roadblock because of its perilous majority, the deliberative senior body will convene tomorrow evening and likely (although we use that word extremely cautiously because the 20-hour mark before the vote is analogous to a legislative month) pass the compromise fiscal rescue bill. Flying the face of the constitutional requirement that spending bills originate in the House of Representatives (there are always ways around that!), the intended action of the Senate is sure to provide comfort and an additional jolt to the international markets overnight and again to the US Financial markets tomorrow. And already both presidential candidates have announced that they will return to Washington to vote on the measure. The bill will be a majority victory for Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The bill, whose text has not yet been released for the sheer fact that it does not yet exist on paper, is likely to include a proposal FIRST circulated by Barack Obama this morning to raise the amount of insured deposits by the FDIC—and it will include a tax break (political codeword: job creation) provision. It will be a dramatic late Wednesday night vote in the Senate.

 

And if Wall Street is higher, as expected, as a result of the agreement tomorrow the Dow COULD end the week exactly where it began—or even higher, having already earned back nearly 500 of the 777 lost yesterday. But if there is one thing that we have learned from this crisis it is that Wall Street tribulations in no way represent the deep---dare I say fundamental---weakness within the financial system and throughout the entire economy. We’re talking about credit. The ability of small businesses to get ready for the upcoming holiday season. The ability of students to get loans to finance the second semester of their college education. The ability of even large companies—like McDonalds—to provide capital to their individual franchises. The ability of the average consumer to buy a car. And buy a home.

 

Hoyer Statement on the Senate schedule for Wednesday, ““I am talking with my House colleagues about the Senate action and how to best proceed taking that into consideration in determining what action in the House will be most successful.”

 

And a statement from earlier today on the “next steps,” ““Democrats remain focused on working towards a bipartisan response to the economic crisis facing our nation.  I have already spoken with Administration officials, as well as Congressional Republican and Democratic leaders about what needs to be done moving forward, and I will continue those conversations today. What is absolutely clear is that the threat to our economy and millions of working Americans requires that we act. At this time, the House is scheduled to meet at noon on Thursday. It still remains to be decided when the House will consider new legislation regarding the economic crisis.”

 

The reviews on McCain today are tough. They even, when coupled with the news about his vice presidential running mate Sarah Palin, border on showing a presidential campaign which has lost control of its message, and itself, just one month before the election. It’s even like a crash and burn.)

 

Jonathan Allen writing in Congressional Quarterly (“Analysis, McCain’s Bailout Gamble Looks Like a Bad Roll” this morning, “After rolling the dice by personally indentifying himself with a $700 billion Wall Street bailout proposal last week, it appears Republican presidential nominee John McCain crapped out early Monday afternoon when the House of Representatives rejected the bill by a vote of 205-228. Republicans insisted that McCain’s well-publicized involvement had led to improvements in the legislation and built backing among Republican members behind a bill that no one wanted to have to vote for. But despite a McCain intervention in the process that was dramatic — or melodramatic, as some critics describe it — only 65 House Republicans voted for the measure. The figure fell far short of the number that House Republican leaders had promised to deliver to ensure wide bipartisan support.”

 

Politico Martin & Allen, “Nervous GOP urges McCain to attack”  for tomorrow’s print edition, “But as September turns to October—Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election—it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems. His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday’s House vote. And his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, initially a political boon, has become a distraction inside and out of the campaign, with top staff now sidelined trying to avoid a debate disaster on Thursday night, officials close to the campaign say.”

 

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder on his blog (post: “A Failure to Communicate (is what we have here)”) earlier today, “John McCain has a fundamental problem. It is that the country blames Republicans for this mess, this enormous, many-tentacled, fundamental economic failure, and McCain hasn't differentiated himself from his party enough. Indeed, as he met with Republicans last Thursday, he seemed to be the leader of their party.  With wrong-track numbers hovering above 80 percent, the thumb is so much on the scale that the political universe is warped; no matter what, gravity pulls voters toward Barack Obama.  The public will be forgiven for agreeing that Republican ideology created this mess, and Republican ideology prevented Republican House members from supporting a bipartisan consensus. Calling Obama a risky, big government liberal -- that hoary, basic, often effective Republican narrative device -- sounds just plain wacky.”

 

And the mother’s milk:

AP, “Analysis: McCain at Dead End as House Rejects Bailout Plan” “Republican John McCain has maneuvered himself into a political dead end and has five weeks to find his way out…Both he and Obama had insisted the plan originally proposed by the Bush administration be strengthened with greater oversight and regulation. Within hours, however, the measure died in the House mainly at the hands of McCain's own Republicans. Initially, McCain went silent, choosing instead to send his chief economic adviser out with a statement that blamed Obama, claiming that the first-term Illinois senator had put his political ambitions ahead of the good of the country. "This bill failed because Barack Obama and the Democrats put politics ahead of country," McCain senior policy adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin said. It wasn't long, however, before McCain told reporters in Iowa: "Now is not the time to fix the blame, it's time to fix the problem." All in all, McCain might have been better served by staying out of the mess and above the fray.”

 

FIVE WEEKS FROM TONIGHT, AT THIS HOUR, WE WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD INDICATION AS TO WHO THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE

 

The Road to Election Night goes through Washington tomorrow, St. Louis on Wednesday, then Nashville one week from tonight and New York two weeks from tomorrow. Of course, the path always runs through Akron, Ohio; Wiles-Barre, Pennsylvania; Denver, Colorado; and St. Paul, Minnesota. (And the one state that I am watching most carefully right now: New Hampshire)

 

Today’s Tracking Polls:

Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama 49/McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 47/McCain 41/Undecided 10

Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 51/McCain 45 (Note: Obama above the 50% threshold)

 

ABC News/Washington Post National Head to Head: Obama 50/McCain 46

Real Clear National Average: Obama +4.8

RCP State Changes Today: PENNSYLVANIA from Toss UP to Lean Obama, Obama now leads the RCP Electoral Chart, 249-163 with 126 toss up votes.

 

And finally, the People’s House is limiting the number of incoming e-mails due to a dramatic slowing of the House server this week because of a record number of e-mails sent in regard to the bailout measure. The Hill reports that some constituents, who e-mail during peak times, might receive this error message, ““The House of Representatives is currently experiencing an extraordinarily high amount of e-mail traffic. The Write Your Representative function is therefore intermittently available. While we realize communicating to your Members of Congress is critical, we suggest attempting to do so at a later time, when demand is not so high. System engineers are working to resolve this issue and we appreciate your patience.”

 

The Senate reports that their e-mail system is fine.

 

And so we enter the month of October---and what a month it will be!