The Golden Report for Friday October 03

Some final updates for this Friday:

 

One more ad, from the previously unknown “Committee for Truth in Politics” hitting on Obama.

 

Note sure what to make of the fact that, in an interview with FNC’s Carl Cameron today, Sarah Palin seemed to be unaware of the fact that her campaign has pulled out of Michigan, saying, “I want to get back to Michigan, and I want to try,” Palin said in an interview on Fox News. “Todd and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan. We'd be so happy to speak to the people there in Michigan who are hurting.”

 

69.9 million people watched the VP debate last night on television, making it the most watched VP debate in US history. It was the most watched program in FNC history, with 11.098 viewers. CNN had 10.685 viewers, MSNBC 4.412 million viewers and the Fox Network beat all of the other broadcast networks with 9.156 million viewers.

 

The House of Representatives has adjourned for the 110^th Congress. The Senate is coming back on November 17^th to deal with the Coburn Omnibus.

 

And tonight NBC Nightly News retakes the streak: for each day this week, Brian Williams has hosted the broadcast from the set at 30 Rock in NYC. He last did the broadcast—without traveling—in early June.

 

 

As a Result of the Passage of Today's Bailout Bill...

SEC NEWS: STATEMENT OF SEC DIVISION OF TRADING AND MARKETS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                    2008-238                                

 

 

STATEMENT OF SEC DIVISION OF TRADING AND MARKETS

 

 

Washington, D.C., Oct. 3, 2008 – The SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets today made the following statement:

 

On Friday, October 3, 2008, the President signed the historic Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (H.R. 1424), aimed at stemming the credit crisis.  Accordingly, the Commission’s Emergency Order that prohibits persons from selling short the securities of financial institutions will expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 8, 2008.

 

# # #

 

Afternoon Campaign Advertisements Released

The McCain Campaign’s latest TV Ad, “Tax Cutter” is significant for several reasons. First, it seeks to define Obama, by asking the question, “Who is Barack Obama?”, but it may be too late in the cycle to define the opponent, with only one month until the election. It seeks to use Obama’s words against him. It is further evidence that TAXES is what both candidates want to have a debate about on the trail—and that they will pivot all conversation about the economy back to taxes—and it uses an interesting screen logo at the end of the ad, “Change is Coming,” seeking to take over the mantra of change from Obama. But, like it or not, Change and Obama are defined together—just as Bush and McCain are. Attempts to switch, as we saw at the debate one week ago with McCain suggesting Obama was like McCain and again now when the McCain Campaign wants to take over the change label, are not going to be successful.

 

Here’s an Obama Ad, released about an hour and a half after the McCain ad, titled “Prescription” which continues to battle point about the McCain Health Care Credit and that it is actually taxable income. Expect that this debate will extend through Tuesday’s town hall debate and likely to next Wednesday’s final debate, on domestic issues.

 

Friday's Tracking Polls

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 44%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 42%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 42%

 

 

 

The Golden Report for Friday October 03

The Golden Report-2pm Update

Decision 2008: The VP Debate, follow-up

 

"Six months ago, we all thought we’d see a veteran white-haired senator debate a dynamic female leader. We just didn’t know their names would be Joe Biden and Sarah Palin!” Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings speaking in Massachusetts at the Kennedy School of Government last night (Wake Up Call)

 

Mike Allen in his post debate wrap-up, “She looked like she was trying to get people to take her seriously. He looked like he was running for vice president”

Also, “The debate did nothing to arrest — and may even have helped cement — a gradual but unmistakable turnabout in the race, with Barack Obama gaining in polls and momentum and McCain losing ground in must-win states. The financial meltdown has put a new premium on competence, and Palin did nothing to show she is ready to be in charge.”

 

Jonathan Martin of Politico, “Palin was sufficient but not spectacular.” Martin’s NASCAR analogy—about the curiosity & expectation leading up to the debate, has been picked up again and again.

 

Martin & colleague Ben Smith, “For the conclusion of Thursday's debate failed to alter a trajectory that has favored the Democratic ticket. The campaign is still handcuffed to the nation's financial crisis, with voters willing to take a risk on change and reminded of what they don't like about Republicans and the Bush administration

 

Marc Ambinder’s First Thoughts last night (early this morning):

“To practiced ears, Palin memorized and repeated talking points and Biden responded to the questions and argued.  Palin dodged questions and seemed vague; but then again, for those whose only impression of Palin has been the one Tina Fay performed on Saturday Night Live, she cleared the bar”

 

NBC’s Chuck Todd says that the debate has a shelf life of 24-48 hours. That said, let’s take a look at the morning newspapers from around the country today:

 

Anchorage (AX) Daily News, “A Matter of Style”

Los Angeles Times, “Biden, Palin trade jabs in fight for Middle Class”

The News Journal (Wilmington, DC) “Biden, Palin court middle class vote”

The Washington Post, “Courting Middle Class Voters”

Chicago Tribune, “The Winner…It’s Debatable”

The Boston Globe, “No Fatal Slips as Biden, Palin tussle for the title of reformer”

The Detroit News, “McCain Camp Pulls out of Mich./Decision Alters Strategy in Race for White House/Move could hurt GOP in other Mich. Races”

St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “They hit Their Marks”

The New York Times, “Cordial but Pointed, Palin and Biden Face Off/ Clashing on Iraq, Energy and the Economy”

 

Also, the news that the McCain Campaign is pulling its resources out of Michigan is perhaps the most significant news of the campaign yesterday. In doing so, they effectively shift their focus from Michigan to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They are also trying to make a play at the Second Congressional District of Maine, Maine being one of two states (Nebraska is the other) that split their electoral votes by Congressional District. The Obama Campaign is trying to make a play for the electoral vote in the Omaha area of Nebraska, and the Obama campaign today opened a new field office in Omaha. The Boston Globe has a story about Maine and the chances of McCain in the traditionally Blue state- and although there is a McCain chance, notice the line about the field/ground operation of the Obama Campaign in the state.

The House Vote on a Financial Rescue Package

Within the Hour, the House of Representatives is Expected to Vote on an Emergency Rescue Package, the same bill which was passed by the Senate on Wednesday Night.

 

Full Coverage:

 

·         Live Twittering on the Right Hand Side of the Screen

·          Reaction from Congressional Leaders & Presidential Candidates on the Blog this Afternoon

 

The Candidates React to the Economic Report

Today, the Labor Department reported that 159,000 jobs were lost in the month of September, bringing the yearly total of jobs lost in 2008 to 760,000. The late summer hurricanes did not have a significant impact on these numbers. The unemployment rate remains at 6.1%. These are the last monthly job numbers to be released before next month’s presidential election. Below are the statements from the two campaigns on this morning’s job numbers, coming just hours after the Vice Presidential Candidates Debate and days before the next Presidential Candidates Debate.

 

Barack Obama:

“Today, Americans woke up to the sad news that 159,000 jobs were lost last month alone, making September the ninth straight month of job loss.  With three-quarters of a million jobs lost this year, and millions of families struggling to pay the bills and stay in their homes, this country can’t afford Senator McCain’s plan to give America four more years of the same policies that have devastated our middle-class and our economy for the last eight.  Instead of Senator McCain’s plan to give tax breaks to CEOs and companies that ship jobs overseas, I will rebuild the middle-class and create millions of new jobs by investing in infrastructure and renewable energy that will reduce our dependence on oil from the Middle East.  I also call on Congress to pass an immediate rescue plan for our middle-class that will provide tax relief, save one million jobs, and save our local communities from harmful budget cuts and painful tax increases.”

 

John McCain:

“Today's report of another 159,000 lost jobs confirms what America's working men and women have understood for months: our nation's economy is on the wrong track. It is imperative that Congress act to address the financial crisis while protecting taxpayers and being good stewards of their dollars. But we must do more. America's middle class needs help from a government that is truly standing on their side and not in their way. I am committed to getting to the roots of this crisis -- reforming Washington and cleaning up the mess created by the greed and crony capitalism of government-backed mortgage giants -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I will reverse out-of-control spending, end the wasteful and corrupting practice of earmarks, and get the government budget back to balance. I will reform health care to control costs and better serve American families, open markets around the globe for our products, cut taxes, and expand domestic production of energy to eliminate the ability of international oil markets to hold our economy hostage. I will create jobs and get the economy on the right track. Unlike Senator Obama, I do not believe we will create one single American job by increasing taxes, going on a massive spending binge, and closing off markets. Our nation cannot afford Senator Obama's higher taxes."

 

·         The McCain Statement includes “middle class” as does the Obama Statement

·         Both statements end with a conversation on taxes, exactly where both campaigns are pivoting the national conversation on the economy to on the campaign trail. Expect taxes—health care and otherwise—to be discussed in Tuesday’s and next Wednesday’s debate.

 

There is no presidential statement, yet.

The Golden Report for Friday October 03

The Golden Report: 11am Update

 

First up, an Obama ad using highlights from last night’s Biden/Palin Vice Presidential Candidates Debate. The issue of concern: a health care tax credit that the Obama Campaign claims will actually be declared as taxable income. This was the subject of another Obama campaign ad up on the air in the hours leading up to the debate last night. In addition to pivoting the conversation to an issue of substance—health care and taxes—the ad also serves to paint Sarah Palin as baseless in that she does not know details about the plan beyond the sound bite that she used in the debate and it therefore shows Biden to be the most experienced and knowgedable. The title of the ad, “Can’t Explain,” speaks to that.

 

Each day, three tracking polls on the presidential race are released. The first is the Rasmussen Tracking Poll, at 9:30am EST. That is followed by the Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll usually around 11am and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll at 1pm. The polls are all either a three-day or five-day average of a daily poll. These polls are good to give a “barometer” reading on the race, showing trends and shifts with momentum. For instance, it is important to look at who is leading, by how much, and how long, as opposed to considering whether a one point shift from one day to the next, from one candidate to another, is consequential.

 

Today’s Rasmussen Poll shows that, as he has all week, Barack Obama leads John McCain 51%-44%. This poll does not take into consideration any impact from last evening’s Vice Presidential Candidates Debate; tomorrow’s poll will be the first to consider the VP debate, and Monday’s poll will be entirely conducted post-St. Louis. [But, of course, by then our attention will be on Nashville and the Second Presidential Candidates Debate on Tuesday night].

 

Also from the Rasmussen Poll, some results from key swing states:

New Mexico: Obama 49/McCain 44

New Hampshire: Obama 53/McCain 43

Montana: McCain 52/Obama 44

North Carolina: Obama 50/McCain 47

 

Some notes about these state polls.

·         It is significant that Obama has a 10-point lead in New Hampshire, a state where John McCain had taken a slight lead even following the first debate. There was a strange paradox going on where as Obama was leading in larger red and nontraditional Democratic states, he was losing ground in New Hampshire, a state known for its streak of independence and is best described in color terms as a bluish shade of purple. McCain has always done well in New Hampshire, having won the primaries there in 2000 & 2008. Obama lost the New Hampshire Primary to Hillary Clinton and never seemed to connect with the voters there. New Hampshire went red in 2000 and blue in 2004.

·          McCain is only ahead by 8 points in Montana, a state that the Obama Campaign pulled out of a few weeks ago when they were down in the national polling, before the current economic crisis. It looks like McCain is losing ground and Obama is appealing to the Montana (and, I would surmise, North Dakota as well) voter. Especially with the news yesterday that McCain is shifting resources out of Michigan and focusing on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and the Second Congressional District of Maine, it might be in the Obama Campaign’s interest to move some resources—especially at the ground level—back into Montana and North Dakota.

·         The simple fact about North Carolina is that if John McCain loses this Southern White State, he is hard stretched to find any spots other places on the Electoral Map to pick up the losses.

·         The above adage also applies to Nevada. A Rasmussen Poll will be released from that state at 3pm this afternoon.

 

The early line on today’s Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 48%-42%. Full poll results will be released later today, but it is of note that McCain’s favorability ratings—among Independents—seem to have increased over the last week, providing some encouraging signs for a campaign that was on the verge of floundering significantly just a few days ago.

 

Today is the First Friday of the Month—which means that the monthly employment statistics from the Department of Labor were released at 8:30am this morning. From the release, “Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 159,000 in September, and the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade,  while mining and health care continued to add jobs”

·         These are the last jobs numbers to be released before the November election (although there are still weekly updates on jobs lost/gained). Look inside the November & December numbers to see if these September numbers are revised considerable—as any indication of partisan influences.

·         The unemployment rate remains steady at 6.1%

·         The Department of Labor says that Hurricanes Gustav & Ike do not appear to have had an adverse impact on these numbers—that is the jobs lost number was not increased because of the hurricanes.

·         The numbers really do not take into consideration the full effect of the current economic crisis. Next month’s numbers—released on the Friday at the end of the “Longest Week” [Election Week], may be very reflective and therefore very bad

 

House Majority Leader Hoyer has a statement about the jobs numbers and the impending House vote on the economic bailout/rescue bill:

“Today, the House of Representatives is taking two strong steps toward economic recovery. First, we hope to pass a financial rescue bill designed to restore the flow of credit to families and businesses. Second, we intend to extend unemployment benefits for seven weeks, or 13 weeks in the hardest-hit states. If we do not act, nearly 800,000 workers who had their unemployment benefits extended in July will find themselves out of luck this Sunday—dumped into the midst of a brewing economic crisis. Unemployment insurance does not simply help those struggling through tough times—economists consider it one of the best ways to stimulate our economy.

There is no doubt that today’s news reflects the hardships faced by families across our country. But they should know that Congress is working overtime to get our economy back on track."

 

On the House floor right now, members are debating the Economic Bailout/rescue package which was passed through the Senate on Wednesday night, with all three Senators running for high office voting for the measure. Although the future of the bill is far from certain, all political indicators look towards passage of the House bill during the noon hour today. Watch carefully how Wall Street responds, and how the major averages finish the week. Ahead of the vote, the Dow is up 230 points. It lost 350 yesterday.

 

Updates throughout the day here on the blog & on Twitter. More later.

The Golden Report for Thursday October 02

With apologizes for an absence of an October 1^st poll, some quick thoughts after tonight’s Vice Presidential Candidates Debate from St. Louis, Missouri and a look ahead to the remaining 32 days of the presidential campaign

 

·         This just in from the Office of Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, “"The House will consider the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act tomorrow morning. I am hopeful that there will be bipartisan, majority support for this bill that is critical to stabilizing our nation's economy for all working Americans."

o    Will the bill pass the second time it is brought to the House floor? What will the markets do if it passes? If it fails? This is a pivotal day and a very important vote

o    This immediately pivots the presidential race back from a post-St. Louis discussion about Sarah Palin & Joe Biden and brings it back to a discussion about the economic crisis and the end of another wild week

o    If it passes, who “wins”? If it passes, who “loses”?

·         Both campaigns are happy that the first (and only) Vice Presidential Candidates Debate is over. For McCain’s side, Palin held her ground and even got in a few digs. She committed no immediate laughable blunders (although she had some significant misstatements). For Obama’s side, Biden held his ground and didn’t say anything to out of line. Both candidates tried to advance the position of their respective running mates, moving the debate on a higher issue level than a contest between the Senator and the Governor.

·         Sarah Palin’s initial selection rescued the McCain Campaign from its low depths following Obama’s foreign trip leading up to his successful convention in Denver. It was a shock to the political system that reverberated for exactly three weeks. Then things fell apart. Her task tonight was to rescue the McCain Campaign again. She succeeded in that she has given the campaign credence and sustainability for the final month of the campaign, and she has given herself an air of semi-legitimacy on the national stage.

·         Palin was in control of the debate, dominating over the moderator (Gwen Ifill, who took a VERY laid back and hands off approach, with very softball questions) and her opponent. It was clear that it was Palin’s night. In the end of things, she even might have had more minutes of response time than Biden did. But to what avail: that’s the question tomorrow.

·         Palin brought the McCain campaign back to a level where they are swimming just below, or just at, the surface. It’s McCain’s task tomorrow to take his campaign from the level that Palin has brought it and bring it to shore. He has a very narrow window of opportunity to do this. And note the above comment that the race pivots back to the rescue package tomorrow morning.

·         Biden showed that he was an experienced master of the Senate and experienced in the policy (economic & foreign) that America is and will be facing. There was a contrast between Americans.

·         When presented with that contrast, in this time of crisis, do Americans want a vice president who talked with such knowledge as Biden did or who talked about the local Saturday morning soccer game, as Palin did? Maybe this just isn’t Palin’s time.

·         All of the legitimacy that Biden exhibited on the stage tonight is, by its very nature, transported and linked with Barack Obama. All of the questions about judgment and the cutesy/folksy language that Palin used (or the fact that much of what she said was obviously pre-rehearsed and a mere recitation) is linked to McCain. The running mates ultimately receive all gains and losses, and in this case McCain ends up having to answer for more questions that Obama does.

·         The Flash Polling conducted right after the debate are revealing and are—again—different from the first reaction from those who watched the entire debate on television or those who were in the room in St. Louis: CNN Flash Poll: Biden 51/Palin 36; CBS Flash Poll: Biden 46/McCain 21/Undecided 33

·         Does this change the nature, course or trajectory of the presidential race? No. McCain still has the problems with finding electoral votes (read; Michigan) and Obama still has the advantages.