Is This Our October Surprise?
Apologies for a lengthy bit of time away—please be assured that your blogger has not been out of touch with the race just neglecting to post in this space.
Tonight—with less than a month before the election—we may have reached a pivotal moment in the presidential race. Two big developments, all involving Republican Senator John McCain, are breaking at this hour.
First, in Alaska, the commission investigating “Troopergate,” or the firing of a State Police Trooper by Governor Sarah H. Palin that may have been motivated by personal (or political) means, has released its final report, finding that Palin abused her power as Alaska Chief Executive but did not violate any laws. Although this is not the worst news that could have come out for the McCain Campaign, it is definitely not the best and it is damaging for a number of reasons:
1) It puts media attention and questions on Palin for at least a week and possibly longer and for every minute of bad media it means that there is one less minute for the McCain to make up ground to even the race out, nonetheless build a margin leading up to the election.
2) It runs completely contrarily to the McCain/Palin campaign message of reform and being a maverick to shake up the corruption in Washington.
3) It completely runs contrary to the media message that the McCain Campaign has run this week trying to tie Obama to the old Chicago political system and raise questions about his character and judgment
4) It comes at McCain’s weakest point in the race, where he is losing ground and momentum and support very fast and is entering a double-digit deficit against Obama.
5) It only adds to the weakened interpretation that many Americans, including and especially Independents, have of Palin since she was introduced to them. They question her immensely and many think that her candidacy is a complete joke (as they see when she is parodied on Saturday Night Live), this reaffirms this interpretation
6) Time is running out for McCain/Palin; this complicates their closing strategy.
Watch the response to this tomorrow:
1) From Sarah & Todd Paliln
2) From Alaska Officials
3) From Ted Stevens
4) From John McCain
5) From John McCain’s Campaign Staff
6) From John McCain’s Campaign Surrogates
7) From Barack Obama/Joe Biden
8) From the Obama Campaign
9) From the Democratic Surrogates
10) From the Media
a. From the Conservative Media
b. From the Blogosphere
SCENARIOS ABOVE THAT COULD BE SIGNS OF TROUBLE (that only extend this story beyond its natural one-week lifespan):
· 1 & 4 differ—perhaps the biggest story which would show uncoordinated p.r. damage control. Especially watch the unscripted interviews that McCain & Palin may give—separately.
· 4 +& 5 differ—watch the first time John McCain goes up for a town hall meeting or interview outside of the control of his handlers. He has a knack (see below) or offering a message than his campaign would have liked.
· 5 & 6 or 1 &6 or 4 &6 differ---with stories such as this, when the #2 is being attacked, and when many in the Republican Party may feel the need to say ANYTHING to defend what they see as unwarranted attacks, and do things that may in the long run be extremely harmful, but that they believe are helpful
Make sure to look at how big a story the Obama Campaign makes this. That will also speak to the lifespan.
Reaction from both campaigns will come in the wake of this week’s string of poll numbers, culminating in a Newsweek poll this Friday Night, that show a widening and expanding Obama lead in the head-to-head presidential match up.
Newsweek Obama 52/McCain 41
We’ll wait for next week’s pre-debate polls before making this conclusion definitive, but after a week of throwing the kitchen sink at Obama, everything from William Ayers to Jeremiah Wright to Weather Underground to the Chicago Political Machine and Mayor William Daly, it has not helped McCain’s standing, in fact it has hurt.
McCain: This evening in a town hall meeting had to walk back and where a week of negative campaign attacks have left the Republican Base’s interpretation of Barack Obama.
A CRITICAL POST ON TIME MAGAZINE’S SWAMPLAND BLOG BY ANA MARIE COX:
Today, at a McCain Town Hall Meeting--- “…But then something weird happens: He acknowledges the "energy" people have been showing at rallies, and how glad he is that people are excited. But, he says, "I respect Sen. Obama and his accomplishments." People booed at the mention of his name. McCain, visibly angry, stopped them: "I want EVERYONE to be respectful, and lets make sure we are."
The very next questioner tried to push back on this request, noting that he needed to "tell the American the TRUTH about Barack Obama" -- a not very subtle way, I think, to ask John McCain to NOT tell the truth about Barack Obama. McCain told her there's a "difference between record and rhetoric, and I plan to talk about his record, respectfully... I don't mean that has to reduce your ferocity, I just mean it has to be respectful."
And then later, again, someone dangled a great big piece of low-hanging fruit in front of McCain: "I'm scared to bring up my child in a world where Barack Obama is president."
McCain replies, "Well, I don't want him to be president, either. I wouldn't be running if I did. But," and he pauses for emphasis, "you don't have to be scared to have him be President of the United States." A round of boos.
And he snaps back: "Well, obviously I think I'd be better. "
This raises a lot of issues:
· Has the McCain strategy run away? That is, has the campaign lost control of their supporters , who are now doing more damage to the campaign than help? Think of it this way, is it really a good think for your supporters to think that your opponent is an Arab terrorist (as was suggested at the same town hall meeting, today)? If this is true, then every Undecided Independent is going to not come over to your side because such thoughts are so outlandish and out of bounds.
· Now McCain has to walk back and has to spend time reigning back in his supporters—spending time and resources in the final month working backwards instead of forwards. Notice the McCain response above. Will he have to spend his valuable airtime at the upcoming Wednesday debate being nice to and with Obama?
· If either of the above questions play out, has the strategy to go negative failed? Was it a last straw that could have been pulled out in the final week—but was pulled out too early?
Either way you look at it, it is a defining change for John McCain and his campaign tonight. Plus they have to deal with Sarah Palin.
Obama: Responding to a week of attacks by their opponents (which largely got overshadowed by the tremendous economic movements and developments of the week), tonight the campaign began airing an ad (and did not announce its release) featuring JOE BIDEN with an independent monologue.
And it is fitting that these potentially game changing developments in the presidential race come at the end of a week in which, for the first time, people began to believe a conclusion of the presidential race. It is important to remember that there is still a lot of time between now and Election Day, but there are fewer and fewer paths left for McCain to take to victory.
