The Golden Report

Thoughts. Musings. Observations. Insight. The Golden Report.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Follow-Up on McCain Tone

From NBC’s The Daily Nightly, this post from Lester Holt previewing today’s Saturday Edition of NBC Nightly News:

 

Emotions are running high in the final weeks of the presidential campaign. Sharp language, attacks and accusations are flying fast and furious — and that's just between supporters of the two candidates. Now, John McCain – who the Obama folks have accused of crossing the line with some of his recent attacks – finds himself in the curious – and oddly uncomfortable – position of confronting his supporters at campaign rallies, and defending Barack Obama.

Tonight on the Nightly News, we'll report on another apparent adjustment in strategy and tone for the McCain campaign, as well as a serious accusation aimed at the Republican nominees from a Democratic congressman who supports Obama.”

 

 

The Golden Report for Saturday October 11

Two names enter the lexicon of the 2008 presidential race today. Their long term impact is negligible. Their shelf life story is less than 24 hours. What they say about the state of the race, however, might provide us with the greatest insight as to where we stand three weeks and a few days out and as we enter the homestretch before the next (and final) previously scheduled game-changing moment in the presidential race: Wednesday’s final debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.

 

But before we get there, our two names:

 

JOHN LEWIS (D-GA)- And we’ll put an asterisk by Lewis’ name because he first appears in the story of the 2008 race during the South Carolina Democratic Primary back in January. Today, in a posting on the ingenious Politico online feature “The Arena,” and on his campaign website, Lewis wrote:

 

“As one who was a victim of violence and hate during the height of the Civil Rights Movement, I am deeply disturbed by the negative tone of the McCain-Palin campaign.  What I am seeing today reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history.   Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse.

During another period, in the not too distant past, there was a governor of the state of Alabama named George Wallace who also became a presidential candidate.  George Wallace never threw a bomb.  He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who only desired to exercise their constitutional rights.  Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed one Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama.

As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Governor Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all.  They are playing a very dangerous game that disregards the value of the political process and cheapens our entire democracy.  We can do better.  The American people deserve better."

 

His comments come in reaction to what we covered in Friday’s report, of the crowds at McCain/Palin rallies and their increasing (this week: explosive) agitation and inflammation. So, the first reaction is, “Did he really go there?” connecting McCain with George Wallace and, it could be inferred, the Birmingham church bombing.

 

In Obama’s reaction, he repudiates that part, but sticks with Lewis’ message—which was incorporated in the Biden ad yesterday and that Obama mentioned early this morning while on the stump, that negativity is no way to run the end of this presidential campaign, especially when the American People are hurting so much. Here’s the Obama Statement:

 

“Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.  "But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States ‘pals around with terrorists. As Barack Obama has said himself, the last thing we need from either party is the kind of angry, divisive rhetoric that tears us apart at a time of crisis when we desperately need to come together. That is the kind of campaign Senator Obama will continue to run in the weeks ahead

 

Separation—to a degree.

 

The McCain Campaign hammered at what the charges, and included a line at the end which can only speak to the sense of urgency (some may say desperation) present within the McCain Campaign Headquarters in Arlington:

 

“Congressman John Lewis' comments represent a character attack against Governor Sarah Palin and me that is shocking and beyond the pale. The notion that legitimate criticism of Senator Obama's record and positions could be compared to Governor George Wallace, his segregationist policies and the violence he provoked is unacceptable and has no place in this campaign. I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track.
I call on Senator Obama to immediately and personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments that are so clearly designed to shut down debate 24 days before the election. Our country must return to the important debate about the path forward for America.”

 

Later today, Lewis issued a follow-up statement, in no way saying that he directly compared McCain/Palin to Wallace, instead raising the negativity issue and the general nature of his campaign (and remember what that does to Independent Voters, who use to be McCain’s voice, and who will be decisive in the election):

 

"A careful review of my earlier statement would reveal that I did not compare Sen. John McCain or Gov. Sarah Palin to George Wallace.  It was not my intention or desire to do so. My statement was a reminder to all Americans that toxic language can lead to destructive behavior.  I am glad that Sen. McCain has taken some steps to correct divisive speech at his rallies.  I believe we need to return to civil discourse in this election about the pressing economic issues that are affecting our nation.”

 

So Lewis’s remarks will have a short-attention span, especially because Obama has distanced himself from the Wallace reference. But did it fulfill its purpose of raising the issue of temperament, both of McCain and his supporters, do a level of cable-news & national discussion? This is not a place that McCain wants to spend the upcoming week. And to that end, it did not help in any way tonight that Sarah Palin was booed, loudly, as she dropped the puck at the Philadelphia Flyers hockey game. If that YouTube video is replayed on cable, the decision to send her on the ice will be looked at as a careless, even stupid, one—clearly because of lack of a coordinated campaign at this point.

 

The Big Question: However much the McCain Campaign might want to attack Obama with Lewis’ remarks, do they actually do McCain the most harm?

 

ARNOLD CONRAD—a name that will not become as familiar as Jeremiah Wright—a pastor who gave the following invocation at a McCain event in Iowa today:

 

“I also would also pray, Lord, that  your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god--whether it's Hindu, Buddha, Allah--that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons.  And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their God is bigger than you, if that happens.  So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and election day."  

 

The Obama Campaign has not responded, nor will they, below McCain had to walk back and release the following statement,

 

“While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama's judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief." - Wendy Riemann, Midwest Regional Communications Director

 

This story has a very short lifespan also. But it speaks to the same theme that we saw above, that we have seen over the last day and a half, and that could become a theme driving the time between now and Wednesday (we will know for sure if we see it on the Sunday Shows tomorrow) and that is the issue of whether or not McCain is control of his own campaign events—his own supporters—the operations and mechanism of his campaign. For the third time in the last week, those that the McCain Campaign selected to speak at McCain Campaign sponsored rallies have gone off message and prompted a push-back from the McCain, the first two being speakers at Palin events who said “Barack Hussein Obama.”

 

Maybe this is intentional on the part of the McCain Campaign, meant to rally the base leading into the final month and in the face of bad poll numbers. But one wonders if it is not a larger sign. If McCain has lost control of his rallies, how could he ever be in control of his campaign, or of the White House for that matter?

 

And the astute Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic noted today that gone was the refrain line, “Who is Barack Obama?” from the McCain speech today—could this be a sign that the character attacks, the kitchen sink strategy, of the last week have ended—in failure? If so, what is next for McCain? What is his strategy leading into the homestretch?

 

MCCAIN’S LAST BEST HOPE FOR TAKING COMMAND OF THE RACE IS ON WEDNESDAY. AND IT IS FAST BECOMING AN INSURMOUNTABLE CHALLENGE: TO REGAIN ALL LOST GROUND, BREAK EVEN, AND MOVE AHEAD.

 

And if any more affirmation were needed, today’s tracking polls, conducted entirely after Tuesday’s Town Hall Meeting debate and completely since the names William Ayers, Tony Resko, et. al. were entered into the campaign, are further evidence of Obama’s key strength:

 

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 52%/McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 40%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 42%

 

Guess where Todd Palin was today? The Second Congressional District of Maine.

Primary Sources: State Department Documents on N. Korea Status Change

Today’s Top Story is the Removal of North Korea from the US Terror Watch List. Below are some primary documents from the State Department on the decision which is, at the least, controversial. Will it become an issue on the campaign trail or in individual congressional elections?

 

U.S.-North Korea Understandings on Verification

  • The participants in the Six-Party Talks have for some time been discussing the importance of verification measures that will allow the Parties to reliably verify North Korea’s denuclearization as the process moves forward.
  • The Six-Party Heads of Delegation met in July to discuss verification measures, and draft papers were exchanged among the Parties.
  • On July 12, China, the Chair of the Six-Party Talks, released a Press Communiqué stating that verification measures would include visits to facilities, review of documents, and interviews with technical personnel as well as other measures unanimously agreed among the Six Parties.
  • Upon the invitation of the North Korean government, a U.S. negotiating team on behalf of the Six Parties visited Pyongyang from October 1 – 3 for intensive talks on verification measures.
  • Based upon these discussions, U.S. and North Korean negotiators agreed on a number of important verification measures, including:
    • Agreement that experts from all Six Parties may participate in verification activities, including experts from non-nuclear states;
    • Agreement that the IAEA will have an important consultative and support role in verification
    • Agreement that experts will have access to all declared facilities and, based on mutual consent, to undeclared sites;
    • Agreement on the use of scientific procedures, including sampling and forensic activities; and
    • Agreement that all measures contained in the Verification Protocol will apply to the plutonium-based program and any uranium enrichment and proliferation activities. In addition, the Monitoring Mechanism already agreed by the Six Parties to monitor compliance with Six-Party documents applies to proliferation and uranium enrichment activities.
  • The U.S.-DPRK agreement on these verification measures has been codified in a joint document between the United States and North Korea and certain other understandings, and has been reaffirmed through intensive consultations. The agreement and associated understandings have been conveyed to the other parties.
  • These measures will serve as the baseline for a Verification Protocol to be finalized and adopted by the Six Parties in the near future.
  • Verification of the North Korea declaration submitted on June 26 has already begun with review of the over 18,000 pages of operating records from Yongbyon that North Korea provided on May 8.

 

U.S.-DPRK Agreement on Denuclearization Verification Measures

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has agreed to a series of verification measures that represents significant cooperation concerning the verification of North Korea’s denuclearization actions. Those understandings are detailed in a separate Fact Sheet.

Based upon the cooperation and agreements North Korea has recently provided, and the fact that the DPRK has met the statutory criteria for rescission, the Secretary of State has rescinded the designation of the DPRK as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, effective immediately.

North Korea has stated it will resume disablement of its nuclear facilities. This demonstrates that the Six-Party principle of “action for action” is working.

We welcome the recent progress made in discussions between Japan and the DPRK toward addressing Japan’s concerns, particularly those arising from the DPRK’s past abductions of Japanese nationals. We strongly urge the DPRK to address Japan’s concerns without further delay. The United States wholeheartedly supports Japan’s position on the abduction issue. We have not forgotten and will never forget the suffering of the abductees and their families.

The DPRK remains subject to numerous sanctions resulting from its 2006 nuclear test, its proliferation activities, its human rights violations, and its status as a communist state.

The United States will continue to work toward the verifiable end to all North Korean nuclear programs and activities. We will not stop until this work is done.

 

For more: Existing Sanctions and Reporting Provisions Related to North Korea

From Rasmussen--The Week in Polls

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

Saturday, October 11, 2008

 

The souring U.S. economy and the presidential battle between Barack Obama and John McCain dominated the polls again this week, but the findings were studies in contradiction.

 

McCain may prefer the town hall format to a moderator asking questions, but voters say Obama won the town hall-style debate Tuesday night in Nashville 45% to 28%. By an 11-point margin, however, they also think McCain is better prepared to be president than Obama.

 

Most voters (52%) like McCain’s plan for the federal government to buy up distressed mortgages and refinance them so homeowners can stay in their homes. But at the same time, 59% say the federal government should not help out homeowners who borrowed more than they could afford.

 

With all the economic bad news, voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on all 10 key electoral issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But if they could vote to keep or replace the entire Democratic-led Congress, 59% of voters would throw them all out and start over again.

 

Less surprising perhaps is that while over 60% rate the U.S. economy as poor, 72% of voters still say the United States is the best nation in the world.

 

One thing an increasing number of voters seem to agree on though as the economic news worsens is that Obama is the candidate they plan to vote for. Nationally, Obama has opened a fairly stable and solid lead in the Rasmussen

Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College.

 

Obama now leads in states with 248 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 163 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 300, McCain 174. A candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win.

 

McCain and Republicans down the ticket clearly are not helped that on Friday consumer and investor confidence had fallen to the lowest levels ever recorded in the seven-year history of the Rasmussen Index.

Obama continues to hold steady or move ahead even in states like Virginia,Colorado,Florida and Missouri, which have a recent history of leaning Republican. Ohio and North Carolina, the latter in particular long considered safe Republican territory, are both now toss-ups.

 

McCain got good news from Indiana, Georgia and Alaska this week, while Obama is comfortably ahead in Michigan New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

 

In other polls this week:

-- Comedian Al Franken has jumped to a six-point lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race. Republican senators in North Carolina and Alaska are in trouble, too.

-- Incumbent Democratic senators in Michigan and New Jersey and GOP incumbent senators in Georgia and Maine are all sailing comfortably toward reelection.

-- With liberal activist voter drives under increasing investigation for possible illegal registrations, 76% of voters believe a person should be required to show photo identification at the polls before being allowed to vote.

-- Forty-five percent (45%) of voters thought Democratic Senator Joseph Biden won the October 2 vice presidential debate while 37% thought Sarah Palin emerged victorious.

-- A majority of voters (52%) continue to believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, and nearly as many (48%) say America is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

-- Fifty-four percent (54%) of Americans believe it is possible to drill offshore for oil without harming the environment, but 48% also acknowledge that there is a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.

-- Just over half of adults (52%) say they intend to receive a flu shot this year, up from 44% last year.

-- Most baseball fans predict an American League team will prevail at the World Series this year, and over one-third think that team will be the reigning champion Boston Red Sox. In the same survey, Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals was the leading vote-getter for National League MVP, and Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox was the top choice for that award in the American League.