The Golden Report for Tuesday October 14

Three weeks from tonight, at this hour, we should be very close to knowing who the 44^th President of the United States will be. Tomorrow night, at this hour, we will know if the third and final presidential candidates debate will prove in any way to change the trajectory and dynamics that this race is currently on. If it does, then McCain will ride a wave of fresh new media coverage and experience a tightening, to his benefit, in the polls. If it doesn’t, then McCain will have to find another opportunity with less than 20 days to go to capture the attention of the American people, particularly the American Independent Voter and reverse their current presidential preference. It is no easy task. If we look solely at the polls however, which is seemingly how some people including most of the cable talking heads determine the current leader in the presidential contest, it is worth noting that the extraordinary high that Obama is at right now (53-39 in the NYT/CBS News Poll released tonight), will likely NOT remain at these levels through the entirety of the next three weeks. We’ve seen this with the daily tracking polls, what was a 10 or 8 point lead one day is, a few days later, a 4 or 6—that is just the nature of polling and the nature of the highest lead of the election, it comes in ebbs & flows. Look for a day within the 20 that remain to have at least a portion of it driven by Obama’s “falling” polling numbers.

 

Going inside the NYT/CBS News numbers, which are shocking enough to drive the pre-debate political conversation tomorrow, we see some striking changes from a poll taken EARLIER THIS MONTH when Obama was already in a comfortable lead.

 

• Obama support among women—and particularly former supporters of Hillary Clinton, has grown to above 50% and 80% respectively
• McCain’s support among self-described moderates has dropped from 40%-28%
• McCain’s support among white evangelicals has decreased from 75% to 63%
• Obama has 63% support among first time voters—flip the order of the digits and you get McCain’s number (36%)

 

Perhaps the most important story that you will read all day, “Poll: Obama leads in 3 of 4 key Bush counties,” by Alexander Burns, Pollitico, “Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.”

 

And our attention turns to Hempstead, New York. Which John McCain will show up for the debate? Will it be the game changer that the media will be looking for? And where do we go from here? Lots of questions and a lot of anticipation leading up to tomorrow night.

 

Monday's Tracking Polls

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: Obama 48%/McCain 42%/Undecided 7%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 42%

 

LA/Times Bloomberg national head-to-head: Obama 50%/McCain 41%

 

Quinnipiac Swing State Polling:

COLORADO: Obama 52%/McCain 43%

MICHIGAN: Obama 54%/McCain 38%

MINNESOTA: Obama 51%/McCain 40%

WISCONSIN: Obama 54%/McCain 37%

 

Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map (yesterday & today):

NORTH DAKOTA: Solid McCain to Lean McCain

FLORIDA: Toss Up to Lean Obama

COLORADO: Toss Up to Lean Obama

MICHIGAN: Lean Obama to Solid Obama

WISCONSIN: Lean Obama to Solid Obama

 

Real Clear National Average: Obama + 7.3

 

The Golden Report for Monday October 13

Some thoughts tonight, just one day before the three-week mark, on perceptions of winners this early.

 

Beginning about last Thursday, major news organizations in this country began writing stories suggesting that the 2008 presidential election was nearing an end and that Barack Obama was to be the winner. There were reports of an “insurmountable” lead and the beginning of a series of questions of mismanagement by the McCain Campaign, especially during the three-week economic crises that we have lived through. Although there was a hint of caution  in the reporting through the weekend, it is beyond clear that there is a reasonable outcome to this election already determined and that there is now an expected winner. There are many dangers to this media coverage and I’ll outline a few of those points here:

·         The election is far from over. If a week is a lifetime in presidential politics, then we have three left. Think of the next three weeks in two distinct phases. The first is now until Oct. 25/26—when we hit the 10 day mark. This is a time for the final debate (which will likely drive the conversation for the rest of this week), for a change in topic initiated by either campaign (the economy, health care, taxes, Wright) and the high intensity campaigning that we have seen so far—with key visits to swing states and daily statements in response to every news event. Once we hit the 10-day mark, the campaign will take a decisively different tone. The campaigns will shift into a closing arguments phase, most likely with a new stump speech which is reiterated through an advertising and media blitz. Instead of campaigning in swing states, the candidates will barnstorm through them,  most likely hitting 2-4 on a single day—going where their pollsters and strategies calculate that their appearance will make a difference. Even now it is hard to change the candidate-branding that has already taken place during the race but soon it becomes impossible. Of course, we are always watchful for a major game changer, scandal of any kind, a national tragedy, a national security event whether internal or external—any of these events brings us into unchartered territory and changes any presumptions that we may have about the trajectory of the race

·         If the media called a winner before the voting began would the voter who is already skeptical that his or her vote makes a difference actually turn out to vote? That is the big question and the campaigns, even with their massive turnout operations, will find it exceedingly difficult  to convince the fickle voter (especially the first-time voter) to turn out if the media reports that the election is a foregone conclusion. This is of special importance in the key battleground states, especially those where Obama enjoys a healthy lead in the polls right now. In the end, this race will revolve around turnout and during the primary season the Obama Campaign mastered that operation—can they replicate it on a single day on a national level to the degree that they need to win? There are no guarantees, and this is the 270-vote question.

·         We’re beginning to hear rumbles from Conservative circles, but expect to hear more of the liberal biased media storyline if the media stops reporting on the race and begins to cover an Obama transition (or treats the election as a coronation). This would be simply irresponsible for the media to do—and I use the word media loosely. The veteran campaign reporters will urge continued reporting, as Dan Balz does in tomorrow’s Post. And there is no better time to be a political journalist than right now. There is no better time to pursue every lead from the entire presidential campaign season. Now, more than ever, in these three weeks, the American people need a responsible and aggressive media. To shirk on that responsibility would cause a permanent media realignment even if we don’t see the fruition of a political one this year

·         As a corollary, this provides the McCain Campaign yet another opportunity to raise the issue of a media bias to rally their base—it’s been a successful strategy so far. And although rallying the base is important, as I have previously noted, that is not what is going to move poll numbers or make McCain’s position any stronger. He needs to earn back lost ground among Independents and then break and gain ground there on his own. By most polls, McCain is behind by double digits with Independents which makes his task all the more complicated.

 

Rasmussen/Fox News Swing State Polling released at 6pm today:

FLORIDA: Obama 51%/McCain 46%

OHIO: Obama 49%/McCain 47%

NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 48%/McCain 48%

VIRGINIA: Obama 50%/McCain 47%

MISSOURI: Obama 50%/McCain 47%

 

The Big Talker: ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama 53/McCain 43