Special Post Debate Analysis
1) Obama won. No other way to spin this tonight but it was a clear victory. He looked more presidential, he answered the question, he very effectively answered questions about William Ayers and ACORN and he was in control.
2) McCain was angry. He threw everything at Obama tonight but lacked a clear, coherent cohesion between the attacks. Put another way, he attacked on ACORN and Ayers and voting records in the IL Senate and taxes but never tied them all together, using the argument that they all show a lack of judgment, or an inexperience, or raise questions for the voters to consider. This was the last debate. The entire debate should have been McCain’s closing argument, but instead it looked like he was still introducing new material. Which brings us to an interesting point: who were the audiences that the candidates were targeting tonight? Looking at what they said, it looked like McCain was speaking to the Republican BASE, to shore up their support, speaking to the Likely McCain voter to make sure that they don’t move and not necessarily as much to the Lean McCain or Undecided Voter (who may have been turned off by the kitchen sink strategy we saw at the debate). Obama on the other hand was speaking to the independent, when he said “I agree with Sen. McCain on this but I disagree with how to get there” it was a perfect example of the type of approach and line that Independent Voters love. Tonight, in his closing argument, Obama was trying to expand his level of support—reaching out to those that are still on the fence but who may, in the final 19 days, cross over. He’s looking at states like Georgia, where McCain holds a tenuous eight-point lead—if tonight’s debate helped to cut that down to 6 or 5 percent than it is very possible that given the right conditions over the next 2 ½ weeks the electoral map could be expanded even beyond the Obama win that it shows now. This speaks volumes to where the candidates are at this point in the race, what they need to win, and how and to whom they will deliver their closing arguments.
3) The debate was not a game changer. Even the media expectations leading into the debate were tampered down because the hurdles for McCain to climb were too great. He needed Obama to make a catastrophic mistake, or he needed to grab with a stunning announcement and neither occurred. We could see that in his answer to the very first question. So without another scheduled game changing moment in sight, the McCain Campaign is running out of cards, running out of money and running out of time. The course of the polling is not likely to change. The media attention (see below) is probably going to begin looking beyond McCain and, without an audience of 70 million Americans at another moment before Election Night---and without the funds to buy a ½ hour of network air time---he is running out of opportunities to connect with the American People. Case-in-Point which WILL be looked at retrospectively to show the state of the McCain Campaign right now: ACORN was a potential moment for them because it developed name recognition with lots of Americans, even being mentioned on ESPN in a non-political context. But the lack of coordination and organization within the campaign prevented ACORN from becoming a defining story and any last hope that the campaign had to move it along failed tonight when Obama gave a very convincing defense, his best to date.
4) Looking Beyond the Election. Watch to see if, following tonight’s debate and in the closing days of the election, a media narrative develops—or even a campaign narrative (which runs the risk of being presumptuous) of Obama looking ahead to his Administration. Perhaps outlining in his closing argument his plan for the First 100 Days—before Election Day. Using the backdrop of a fiscal and economic crisis, he may propose detailed economic plans, a team of advisors, hold a summit etc…or the media could begin the speculation of what will be on the Obama Agenda. As described earlier in the week, this runs the risk of having some voters not turn out or even turning some voters off, but it may convince and reassure just as many and might actually increase the undecided vote—because unlike the last two elections, the undecided might end up voting for the candidate “just because he is going to win,” and if that candidate is perceived to be Obama, the election will follow.
5) Where do we go from here? Watch the schedules for the campaigns carefully from here on out. Which states? How many stops? How many people? Watch for any day of or last minute schedule changes—these will be our best indications of the internal polling and the internal feelings of the campaigns. Palin is going to New Hampshire this weekend for the first time, we can analyze that as a start and see that McCain/Palin are still putting resources in a state that the polls have shifted Blue, and which was a Blue State in ’04…but she is only going for a few hours which means it is not a primary focus. Still, with limited time, shouldn’t the campaign be defending the Red States they need to hold instead of the Blue states they wish to pick up? Watch the asset movements too…today we heard that some Obama staff were moving out of Michigan to Ohio & Wisconsin—a sign of confidence in the state. Confidence and concern are to words we will need to describe these states going forward through the next two weeks.
6) Obama still hasn’t released his fundraising numbers for September yet, and they are expected to be astronomical. They might have saved them until after the debate as a security policy in case something went wrong. They could be released tomorrow, to drive the Obama narrative further, or on Friday to drive the weekend conversation.
7) This is really it. No more debates. Both candidates do speak in NYC tomorrow night at the Al Smith Dinner—but they will appear separately. Then it’s on the trail for the weekend and leading into the final days of October. For a campaign, it really doesn’t get more exciting than this.
8) And we have a new addition to the lexicon of Election 2008: Joe The Plumber!
