The Golden Report for Saturday October 18

Tomorrow morning we very well could have a game changing/October Surprise moment in our campaign when Colin Powell goes on Brokaw’s Meet the Press. The language that he chooses to use will be very important—will he unequivocally endorse Obama, will he indicate that he has qualms about supporting McCain, or will he remain elusive? Moreover, what are his thoughts about the war in Iraq, Iran, his treatment by the Bush Administration—does he shed any his tenuous time as Secretary of State and does he provide an assessment as to how Condoleezza Rice is performing in her role? Further, what does Powell indicate his future plans are as a very popular American figure—will he return to public service, rising to the challenges that this country faces, in the next Administration or will he remain in private/philanthropic life? A big morning on Meet—analyzed immediately afterward with a great panel including Andrea Mitchell & Joe Scarborough, among others.

 

If a Powell endorsement of Obama occurs, it could provide a bloc of media coverage for several days—as it has in the last two leading up to Sunday. Pundits will weigh in and columnists will provide their take. It very well could dominate the first half of the second-to-last full week of the election. No doubt it is being primed for maximum efficiency, coming after the final debate, at a moment when Obama’s support seems to be peaking (with some thinking that it may be doing so too early) AND (but this last one is probably by coincidence), the morning after Sarah Palin grabs attention on Saturday Night Live. In terms of timing, the endorsement is planned perfectly.

 

The endorsement may help to shore up to the support of independent voters who still have concerns about Obama’s national security/foreign policy credentials. It may serve the purpose of what the July international trip was suppose to do in the minds of the undecided/unsure voter. Watch to see if there is any “Powell bump” in public opinion tracking polls or national/swing state polling over the next week.  (and a note about polling: we will reach a point in about a week when any faith that we have put into polling throughout this election—which should have been very little—has to completely go away. Polling in the last week of a presidential election is not (unless, of course, it is) an accurate predictor of the national result in a few day’s time. What it does it drive momentum and speculation—and that angle can never be underestimated.

 

But the most important thing that an Powell endorsement does is deal a crucial, perhaps fatal, blow to the John McCain Campaign. These are two men who both served their country and who value loyalty—to have one so publicly break from the other would almost be akin to a previous big-name endorsee changing their minds and switching sides. What is the McCain response? And will Obama counter with video clips and statements of favorable comments that McCain has made through the years about Colin Powell? It will be hard to spin an endorsement such as Powell’s—and the media will be very quick to catch on to the story.

 

Saturday Political Movements

1) 100,000 people at Obama rally in St. Louis
2) McCain advisor says N. Virginia not "real" Virginia
3) Obama/HRClinton to campaign together
4) Palin on SNL
5) Powell on MTP

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Saturday's Tracking Polls

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 42%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 42%

 

Note: 2 of the 3 day sampling occur after the final presidential candidates debate