The Golden Report

Thoughts. Musings. Observations. Insight. The Golden Report.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Sunday's Tracking Polls

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 48%/McCain 41%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 52%/McCain 42%

 

Note: Today’s tracking polls are the first to be entirely conducted following the third and final presidential candidates debate; on a whole, they show very little change from polls conducted before the debate last week.

Next, watch to see if today’s endorsement by Colin Powell works in a way to solidify support according to these polling indicators—tomorrow’s poll will be the first to take into consideration 1/3 of any Powell effect.

 

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The Sunday Morning Campaign Storyline

Multiple moving parts on this Sunday morning, evidence that as we enter the second-to-last full week on the campaign trail the intensity is as high as ever

 

1)       On Meet the Press this morning, Ret. Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama. How does this drive the day—and the first half of the week---on the trail? See post from yesterday for “what this means.”

2)       Obama Campaign announces they have raised $150 million in the month of September and—as Politico’s Ben Smith noted—held off as long as possible in October until making that announcement so as to continue their aggressive financial push. “It may be harder,” Smith writes this morning, for the campaign to ask for money now after such an extraordinary figure, which is nearly double the entirety of the sum that McCain was allotted between the RNC and Election Day.

3)       With these two pieces of news, the Obama Campaign is in control of the news cycle for Sunday and into Monday. Watch to see when and if this shifts at any point in the week ahead

4)        A lot of attention being paid on West Virginia—we’ll lump that state in the category of last-minute red states that the Democrats believe they may have a fighting chance in when the wind is at their backs and the money is rolling in. Other states on that list: Georgia, Arizona, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Kentucky, Tennessee.

5)       Newspaper endorsements continue this weekend. Editor & Publisher Magazine is probably the best authority for crunching all of the numbers and providing a historical perspective, and they have the running count at Obama 71/McCain 18—yet it is still a little early because there will be many more endorsements next weekend.

6)       McCain Campaign having to backtrack from what their candidates and their chief advisors are saying—including comments such as “pro” and “anti” America, Obama wanting a “socialist” government and “real” and “not real” Virginia. These gaffes are serving as great distractions, they are using up valuable time in the final days, they are a sign of campaign desperation and frustration, they mean more now than ever before and they are a sign of the fractured internal organization and management of the campaign.

7)       Plus, moderate GOP Senators are beginning to jump ship and distance themselves from McCain, including Norm Coleman and Susan Collins who have now called for the cessation of all RNC-led anti-Obama robocalls.

8)       A final note on Powell related to #7 above, does his endorsement have the effect of begin a leader, causing other notables to follow in his footsteps? Will we see more defections this week?

9)       Also moving headlines are the extraordinary crowds that Obama received in Missouri—a key battleground state where he has been behind for much of the campaign—over 175,000 people in two different rallies

10)   And, just like the Oliver Stone film “W”, Sarah Palin’s performance on Saturday Night Live last night turned out to be anti-clamatic—although the Amy Poehler Rap will live forever in Campaign ’08 Memory.