Two Weeks from Tonight--At This Hour: What Happened Four Years Ago

Two Weeks from Tonight--At This Hour: What Happened Four Years Ago

Let's hope this year's coverage does not feature the reaction of a live background audience

Charlie Cook's Tuesday Column-Must Read (from National Journal)

OFF TO THE RACES

In Endgame, Metrics Are Adding Up For Obama

 

By Charlie Cook

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2008

 

One of the most unsettling aspects of this campaign is that for an election cycle so turbulent, with so many surprising twists and turns, over the last few days it suddenly has had the feel of concrete setting. Just seven or eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama had a lead over Sen. John McCain, but it hardly seemed sure; we wondered, is this lead real, is it durable?

 

But today it seems very unlikely that the focal point of this election is going to shift away from the economy. And as long as the economy is the focal point, it's difficult to see how this gets any better for Republicans up or down the ballot. It's sobering to think of the magnitude an event would have to have to pull voters minds off the economy, the credit markets that have seized up, the stock market that has been pummeled, the values of their 401(k) and other retirement plans that have plummeted. How can an election that was so volatile now suddenly seem to be so inevitable?

 

At this point it would be difficult to see Republican losses in the Senate and House to be fewer than seven and 20 respectively. A very challenging situation going into September turned into a meltdown last month, the most dire predictions for the GOP early on became the most likely outcome.

 

The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it's only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn't that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn't come back this far this late.

 

Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy. With as many as one-third of voters likely to cast their ballot before Election Day, every day more are cast and the campaign is effectively over for them. The longer Obama has this kind of lead and the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain.

 

Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side. The unprecedented surges seen in Democratic party registrations in those states that require party affiliations confirm that.

 

Fourth, just look at the money and spending. With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message. For a time, Obama was matching McCain one for one in negative advertising, then spending double or triple on top of that in positive advertising. Now Obama seems primarily doing positive ads, probably the right move given his lead going into this final stretch. Organizationally, it's hard to find any state where McCain is organized as well as President Bush was four years ago or Obama is today, a product of both money and enthusiasm.

 

Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," voters telling pollsters that they will vote for an African-American candidate when they won't, putting aside the question of whether it ever existed, it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.

 

Finally there are the states. Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

 

As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.

 

Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big.

 

 

A Day of Gallup Polls

Now inside the two-week mark before America votes and today the Gallup Organization released several studies on the US Presidential Election as it is perceived around the world.

 

From a poll on perceptions in Muslim countries: (all percentages below: Favor Obama/Favor McCain/Don’t Know or Refused)

Saudi Arabia: 50%/19%/31%

Lebanon: 45%/18%/38%

Palestinian Territories: 33%/11%/56%

Kuwait: 32%/12%/56%

Turkey: 22%/8%/70%

Pakistan: 5%/5%/91%

 

The final number out of Pakistan is striking—showing a notable lack of interest in the US presidential election which is confusing given the important strategic value placed on Pakistan by the United States . Also striking, the number of those in the Palestinian Territories who didn’t have a US candidate preference, which can mean two things, 1) Both candidate’s policies are seen as similar so the choice between them really isn’t a choice or 2) The respondents feel that no matter who wins the election it will have no impact on them. Gallup makes it a point to say that Obama is presented, through the media, in these countries as an “American candidate” not the “son of a Muslim”

 

In Japan, Obama is favored over McCain 66%-15%, with 18% not expressing a preference. Here, Obama’s message of change may be resonating, the poll finds, within a country that has had two prime ministers within the last four years, Shinzo Abe & Yasuo Fukuda, caught up in scandal and with low approval ratings.

 

A North American Poll, found that Canadians found Obama 67% to McCain’s 22% with 11% undecided and Mexicans polled favored Obama with 27%, McCain with 9% and 64% not expressing a preference. The poll explains the large don’t know number in Mexico to be a result of low levels of education and the relative absence of a discussion of Immigration on the campaign trail this fall.

 

John McCain leads in a poll taken in the Philippines, 28% to 20% over Barack Obama with over half undecided, yet, when respondents were asked if the US Presidential election would make a difference in their lives, 49% said it would, 27% said it would not and 24% did not know.

 

The trend of indecisiveness in determining the man to lead while saying that the election is consequential was also found in the Baltic Region, where Estonians favored Obama 22%/17% and 62% with no response, Latvians 23%/15%/62%, a nearly identical finding and Lithuanians 13%/13%/74%.

 

The best explanation for the following numbers from developing nations in South Asia, “Observers could assume that the U.S. presidential election would be at the forefront of South Asians' minds in these countries because of the prominent roles that the United States plays in the region, including trading partner, ally, and provider of aid. However, daily life in these countries does not afford most of their residents the luxury of closely following domestic political news of the United States.”

 

Bangladesh: Obama 19%/McCain 8%/No Preference 73%

India: Obama 7%/McCain 2%/No Preference 91%

 

And from developed nations, a wider gap:

Australia: Obama 64%/McCain 14%/No Preference 22%

South Korea: Obama 50%/McCain 24%/No Preference 25%

 

In Africa, Obama leads an average of the results from a survey of 22-nations, 56% to McCain’s 9%.

 

One place where the US Presidential Election is seen as having an important consequence is in Europe, a Gallup survey of 14-nations found that 65% of respondents said that the US elections makes a difference for their country, 27% said that it did not and only 7% did not know. This speaks to the strong trans-Atlantic relations that both Obama and McCain bring with them to the campaign.

 

Stepping out and looking at the big picture, a 5-month Gallup poll over 70 countries representing 50% of the world’s population found 30% saying that they have a clear preference that Barack Obama be the next President of the United States; 8% had such a feeling about John McCain and a clear majority, 62%, had no opinion.

 

A little International Perspective on the US race.

Two Weeks from Tonight

A look back at the opening to NBC's Election Night Coverage in 2004.
Video begins at about 30 seconds in.




Notice Tim Russert's presence alongside Tom Brokaw. He has been missed throughout this presidential campaign and will be most on Election Night.

The Golden Report for Monday October 20

As we near the two-week mark before Election Night, the week that began with media space to fill now has a news story to populate the second half of this week leading into the critical second-to-last weekend. Obama will go off the trail Thursday-Saturday, as it is currently planned & announced by his campaign tonight, to return to Hawaii and visit his ailing grandmother. Coming in the intensity of the final push of the political campaign here are some immediate initial observations:

·         Timing is everything—it eats up the second half of this week and Obama can return to the campaign trail in time to begin a week-long closing argument leading into a national get-out-the vote push unlike any we have seen before.

·         It leaves an Obama vacuum—if Obama will not be on camera who will step in? Biden? Michelle? Obama surrogates?

·         It makes it very difficult for the McCain Campaign to launch any aggressive end-of-campaign attack. It was rumored early today in some papers that McCain was rethinking his pledge not to discuss Jeremiah Wright. If he were to start that this week it would be difficult to sustain while Obama is dealing with a family crisis.

·         Where do the media turn to their story? Do they turn to their investigative units—working leads on McCain—or Obama? Same sort of difficulty may apply to newspaper editors before publishing any new revealing inflammatory details about Obama. Might be a time to look at the McCain campaign in a closer light—to turn full attention on them—which can be a mixed blessing

·         It presents an opening for McCain. With your opponent stepping down, the stage is his to do and say what he wishes. There are some limitations (see above), but this could be his last best chance at seizing control of this race

·         Look at what this says about the confidence of the Obama Campaign at this time—if he were behind and in desperate need of every possible moment on the trail then even in a family emergency the campaign would think twice about four full days off the trail

·         Consider this thought: Obviously Obama is leaving the campaign for an urgent family crisis but his doing so may have no effect on the actual race because most Americans have already, after a nearly two year campaign, made up their minds already. Perhaps as many as 25 or 30 percent of the voters in the states with early voting will have already voted by election day. Maybe Powell did seal the deal—then Obama goes away for a little—and then returns to have a get out the vote operation and lead us right into Election Night.

 

One curious element: if his grandmother’s health is dire, then why wait until Thursday to go to Hawaii—and why keep campaign stops tomorrow in Florida and Wednesday in Leesburg, Virginia & Iowa?

 

MICHELE BACHMANN, probably just better known as “The [or That] Representative from Minnesota” is the subject of an e-mail from the Obama Campaign this evening. Her interview late last week on Hardball in which she threw the kitchen sink at Obama and called introduced the McCain-surrogate & Palin argument about two Americas, one pro and one Anti, came just before Nancy Pfotenhauer said to MSNBC’s Kevin Corke over the weekend that there were two Virginias, one real and one Anti.

As an aside, these weekend comments occurred before Colin Powell gave his critical endorsement of Barack Obama on Sunday morning and, in the process, decried this type of campaigning from the McCain side.

 

From the David Plouffe e-mail:

 

XXXXX --

In the past few days, we've heard the most divisive statements so far from the McCain campaign and its surrogates.

Governor Palin said she likes to visit the "pro-America areas" of our country.

Now, a Republican representative and McCain surrogate from Minnesota is accusing Barack and other congressional Democrats of being "anti-American."

Watch Rep. Bachmann unleash her absurd scare tactics. Then make a donation of $5 or more to defeat the tired old politics of fear and division.

The McCain campaign and its surrogates just don't get it.

To solve the serious issues facing our country, we need a leader who will bring us together, not tear us apart.

Comments like these are a cheap ploy to divide and undermine the movement you have built.

The McCain campaign and its surrogates are trying to move our country in the wrong direction, and they remind us of exactly what's at stake in this election.

Make a donation of $5 or more now to stand up for the America we believe in -- where despite differences of opinion, we can always find common ground to work for the change we need:


Thanks for your support,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

P.S. -- Your donation will come at an especially important time.

On Friday, we are making final decisions about funding for field operations and crucial get out the vote efforts for the last days of the election. Make a statement and help strengthen this campaign in the final stretch:

 

After announcing a $150 million toll in the month of September, it is a little peculiar that this is the second fundraising e-mail from the Obama Campaign today; both asked supporters for only $5 before a weekend deadline.

 

To today’s tracking polls, including a new daily tracking poll which will be conducted through the election from ABC News & the Washington Post:

 

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 46%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 47%/McCain 42%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 52%/McCain 43%

ABC News/Washington Post Daily Tracking: Obama 53%/McCain 44%

GWU/Battleground Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 45%

 

Although some fluctuation is expected, and when taken as a whole these polls are almost where they were throughout last week, the internal numbers show some tightening as a result of a gain by McCain. According to Politico’s Gameday scorecard, Obama won the day. And according to the Real Clear Politics electoral map over the last few days, Minnesota has gone from Lean Obama to Solid Obama (10/20), Montana from Solid McCain to Lean McCain (10/19), North Dakota from Lean McCain to Toss-Up (10/17), Florida from Lean Obama to Toss-Up (10/15) and Washington from Lean Obama to Solid Obama (10/15). According to CQ Politics, the following states are rated “no clear favorite:” Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia

 

THE BIGGEST NEWS ABOVE IS FROM NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A TOSS-UP STATE

 

Two big candidate surrogate items today:

Hillary Clinton campaigned with Obama in Florida today, on the first day of that state’s early voting (Nevada is also now open for voting). For the first joint appearance with Obama since the event in Unity, New Hampshire this summer, Clinton came out as a solid attack dog—the numbers for former Hillary supporters who are now backing Obama are almost seamlessly in line with his poll numbers among women generally (remember that this runs contrary to the reasoning that McCain is thought to have used—if reasoning is the right word—when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate in September) and both Bill & Hillary Clinton are now campaigning forcefully in the final two weeks for Obama. Likely struck with the prospect of finally returning the Democrats to power, and sensing that it is within their grasp to help make it happen, expect that any further reconciliation will occur very quickly.

 

And the McCain Campaign announced that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, apparently no longer sequestered in California as a result of a budget impasse, will campaign in Columbus Ohio for John McCain on Halloween. Your blogger will also be in Columbus on that day and will try in whatever way possible to attend this event.