The Golden Report for Wednesday October 22

Isn’t it amazing that in this second to last week before the Election, where there was not a built-in storyline for the campaign to follow, the attention has not been on the two men vying to be President, but rather the man and woman in the vice presidential spot on their tickets. Both Joe Biden and Sarah Palin have had minor gaffes this week, Biden suggesting publicly that, if elected, Obama would be “tested” within the first few months of his presidency and Palin saying that the vice president will have “control” over members of the Senate. Both have some valid points which can be spun—there is historical precedent of national security events testing new presidents (remember when the Chinese held an American spy plane crew for several days in the summer of 2001 sparking the first national security crisis of the Bush Administration which was overshadowed by 9/11). And Palin was semi-right as she, in answering a question sent in from an 8^th grader, alluded to one of the two constitutionally defined roles of the vice president, as President of the Senate—although the Constitution limits the Vice President to cast votes only in matters of a tie. Unclear from the interview if Palin knew that to the thorough extent then that she did in an interview with Brian Williams which aired tonight.

 

Why the attention on the vice presidential candidates—why the lack of interest in the records of McCain or Obama on, and heaven forbid we discuss them, the issues? Where’s the closing argument about Iraq? Health care? Even taxes?

 

One possible explanation is that, after a 2-year long campaign, voters have already made up their minds. It’s hard to believe that any voter could really be truly undecided at this point, especially if they live in a swing state and have received constant attention from the two candidates. Remember that there is a difference between being unaffiliated and undecided, and granted the undecided numbers in the national polls are around 5-6% which is fairly low.

 

But this lull that we seem to be in, where we have poll after poll and indicator after indicator pointing to an Obama victory on November 4^th, is all but demanding a story to fill the current void. It’s the perfect opportunity for either candidate to step in whether directly or through the use of opposition research. But if we complete the next two days of this week and enter the weekend still without a dominant story then it becomes nearly impossible to change the race’s trajectory. And remember that Obama goes off the trail tomorrow until Saturday. In terms of timing, Democrats wish that they could accelerate the calendar by about a week and go right into the get-out-the-vote operation and, they hope, out-mobilize the Republican GOTV machine and Democrats wish they had about four more months to go through yet another reinvention of their presidential candidate.

 

Maybe the most important thing to remember (and maybe the best explanation out there for the seeming boundless nature of the campaign this week) is that everyone—the media, the strategists, the staff and the candidates—are tired after a long and grueling fall. As NBC’s Chuck Todd noted this evening, given these factors, it is much easier for the Obama Campaign because they have the winds at their backs, they have a stride in their steps and they have a catalyst to propel them forward. It’s much harder for the McCain campaign who must overcome so much just to begin the process of closing the gap, not to mention gaining ground. With each day that goes by it becomes harder and harder for McCain to really get back in the race. It’s been almost two weeks now since Obama took the commanding position that he holds in the race.

 

Yet it is still close in several battleground states and there are more states coming into possible contention that once were solidly favoring McCain. Pennsylvania and Virginia are the two states to watch intensely right now. The next tier are Ohio and Florida. Then Colorado and Nevada. Then New Mexico and Iowa. (North Carolina is in there somewhere too). And also on the list to watch are Georgia and West Virginia.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply today, its 7^th largest point decline (514) in history, after earnings news for the Third Quarter reflected what is fast becoming commonplace acceptance: that the US Economy is in a recession. Today’s drop also reminds us that over the last week, when Wall Street has held fairly stable and there was a lot of talk of a bottoming out, that we have not yet hit bottom yet—the global market is still uneasy and the American foundation is still broken.

 

What a time to be alive. This nation is about to perform its most important, sacred and time-honored tradition of voting to elect our next leader. The choice is stark; it is generational; it is fundamental. The course that this country takes in the future is truly at stake. That is why we are seeing reports of high turnout at early voting states in those states that offer it. More importantly, Americans are treating the vote this year as an intensely emotional experience, an extremely personal choice and a tremendously important responsibility. America is at a crossroads—our economy is in crisis, our infrastructure is crumbling, our health care system is broken, we are at war on 2-fronts, we have a ballooning budget deficit and we are faced with the imminent reality of the retiring of a generation of Boomers who will require more from their government in their later years of life. How this country addresses these problems will be decided by the man who assumes the presidency on November 4^th.

 

From now until then, we have some time for reflection and inward looking--- to ourselves, the engaged and active citizenry that we are of this great democracy, and our place and beliefs in this country whose ideals we cherish. For all who question the health of civic responsibility and the strength of our Democracy as led by the Constitution this is a time to prove the skeptics wrong. The choice is apparent, the call is resounding and the moment is critical.  Let us go forth through the final days of this campaign keeping our eyes on what is truly at stake.  

Wednesday's Tracking Polls

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 45%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 47%/McCain 42%/Undecided 8%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (Traditional Voter Model): Obama 50%/McCain 45%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (Expanded Voter Model): Obama 52%/McCain 44%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (Registered Voters): Obama 51%/McCain 42%

GWU/Battleground Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 47%

 

Still to Come tonight: ABC News/Washington Post Daily Track

 

National Head-to-Head:

Franklin & Marshall: Obama 50%/McCain 45%

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: Obama 49%/McCain 40%

 

 

Tuesday's Polling Data

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 46%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 47%/McCain 41%/Undecided 8%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll w/an Expanded Survey of Likely Voters: Obama 52%/McCain 42%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll w/ a Survey of Registered Voters: Obama 52%/McCain 41%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll w/ a Traditional Survey of Likely Voters: Obama 51%/McCain 44%

ABC News/Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 53%/McCain 44%

GWU/Battleground Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 48%/McCain 47% *Clearly an Outlier in today’s read*

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal National Head-to-Head: Obama 52%/McCain 42%

AP/McClatchy National Head-to-Head: Obama 50%/McCain 42%

Pew National Head-to-Head: Obama 53%/McCain 39%

 

 

 

The Golden Report for Tuesday October 21

Two weeks from tonight, at this hour, we should have a very good indication—and be very close to projecting---who the 44^th President of the United States will be.

 

Looking ahead to Election Night and the chronological progression of state polling closing times from East to West across the country, there is still the possibility for suspense and a close race, at least in terms of the Electoral College, early in the night. Here then is my best imagination of what Election Night 2008 will look like:

 

6pm: First polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. But unlike earlier years, Indiana is not a sure bet to be called before the first round of network evening news casts—Obama is having a strong showing in Indiana and the state’s projection will likely be held out of an abundance of caution until later in the evening (but hopefully not as long as it was during the primary season—when we waited until nearly 2am for a narrow Hillary Clinton victory on May 4^th, the same night that Obama had a blow-out performance in North Carolina; the fact that Indiana was even close in the Democratic Primary gave Obama the political life that he needed to begin a heavy flow of superdelegates that, from that point, never ceased). Kentucky will likely be the first state to be called, giving McCain an early lead…but the Senate race in the state will be the most interesting contest in the Bluegrass State. Any increased Democratic or Republican turnout as a result of the McConnell/Lundsford fight could impact presidential voting.

 

7pm: Networks take to the air for a long night of limited-commercial interruption coverage. At this hour, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont & Virginia close. South Carolina & Vermont are the only two that could be easy calls to make. Georgia will likely go McCain but it may be close enough to hold off a while and the networks will be cautious with projecting New Hampshire (it was not called for Kerry until 2am in 2004). But the big news at the top of the 7 o’clock hour, and the live vote count to keep an eye on throughout the night, will be Virginia. A very close Senate election in 2006 wasn’t decided for Jim Webb until 2 days after the election—but this year it looks like Obama has a comfortable lead. Virginia is also a state where we could see any impact from the Bradley effect, should it appear, so any faith in exit polling will be slight. The significance of Virginia in this election—especially because of its early poll closing time—cannot be underestimated. Should Obama be declared the winner in Virginia, at an early point in the evening, it will foreshadow the direction of the rest of the night. Without Virginia, McCain’s electoral paths to the White House are seriously diminished. That said, should McCain pull off a win in Virginia it will change the tone of the evening’s coverage completely and will cause a recalculation of the map in the minds of the on-air political analysts. Look for a Virginia projection within 2 hours of the polls closing.

 

7:30pm: As everyone is still talking about Virginia, and as perhaps we begin to get a projection in New Hampshire (Obama) or Georgia (McCain), 3 states close on the half-hour: North Carolina, Ohio & West Virginia. Again, it may be difficult to project any of these three states right at the poll closing times. North Carolina is expected to be very competitive, it is currently ranked as a toss-up, and it could provide Obama another Red-state pickup. Ohio was the state that the 2004 election hinged on and it is expected to be crucial again—it is also a state where voting results take a very long time and we may not even get a hard vote count until an hour and a half after the polls close. There is renewed attention being paid on West Virginia, this alone could cause analysts to be hesitant in projecting an expected McCain win.

 

Even if the state’s ultimately go the way that they did four years ago, the fact that they are tight—or that there was a serious challenge—will drive coverage and cause projections to be held back until a large percentage of real vote comes in.

 

8pm: The first big poll closing times with the most states than at any other time. It usually takes the networks a good 5-8 minutes at the top of the hour to go through the list of projections—and sometimes this conflicts with a call in a big state that has previously closed (Indiana? North Carolina?), so watch for a lot of numbers right at 8. The states that are certain to be added into the McCain category: Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Tennessee & Texas. The states certain to be added into the Obama column: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts & New Jersey. Note: because of the electoral allotment to these states, and depending on how long it takes to call some of the big ones that closed in the two hours before 8, it is possible that McCain holds a slight electoral college lead at this point.

States that will still be outstanding: Florida—where the networks will always be careful to call and where results will again be close; Missouri—again a state where real vote numbers usually take some time to come in; Michigan---although given the McCain campaign’s pullout, this state  could be called at the closing; North Dakota & South Dakota---where there has been some tightening, but where a McCain win is expected, perhaps at the closing; Pennsylvania---the state that for all extent and purposes the McCain Campaign has invested themselves in for the final two weeks. Four years ago, Pennsylvania was the first of the “Big 3” to be called, shortly after 9pm. Florida came second. It will likely go in that order again this year. An Obama win in Virginia & Pennsylvania will all but seal the deal. A McCain win in both states will be a very big deal (and will drive the conversation immediately to racism) but it will still present him with a very difficult electoral scenario for the rest of the night.  

 

At this point, the Big States of the night, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida & Ohio, will be the ones to keep an eye on the real popular vote count. Due to the staggered nature of the poll closings, it is possible that we could be faced with a 15 or 20 minute timeframe in which 2, 3 or all 4 of these states are called. This could occur before 10pm. But, if the networks are hesitant to call these races until, let’s say, half or 60% of the real vote comes in, then it is still possible that McCain would hold an electoral vote lead at this point in the night.

 

Throughout the night, but especially at the 8pm closing, watch the divergence in the popular vote numbers and the electoral vote leader. In the past two years, we’ve seen the popular vote very close—look to see any leads developing this time. And listen for the familiar refrain of the network anchor reminding the viewer that it is the popular vote, but instead the quest to 270, which will determine the winner.

 

9pm: PBS comes on the air with Jim Lehrer, David Brooks & EJ Dionne. Another big closing time, with Arizona, Louisiana, Nebraska & Wyoming likely to be called immediately for McCain and New York, Rhode Island & Wisconsin likely to be called for Obama. Watch the 2^nd Congressional District of Nebraska to see if an elector switches in the Omaha suburbs. Also at this hour, Minnesota, hope of the 2008 RNC but likely to go for Obama, will close and may be called soon after. Also, New Mexico, where Obama has opened a lead in a state that Kerry won narrowly. As we learned four years ago, New Mexico sometimes takes a while to get real votes to come in, too. But the big state to watch at 9 is Colorado, the home of the 2008 DNC and where Democrats have a very good chance of having a Red-state pick up. Because of the importance of Colorado, the networks may take a while—and for some real vote—before projecting.

 

This is perhaps the most important hour of election night, when we should see some big states being called—likely confirming what will be known earlier in the evening. It will be a long and intense hour, also when we’re likely to get a projection on control of the US House and the call in some key Senate Races.

 

10pm: McCain will add some electoral votes to his category at 10pm, when Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert come on the air on Comedy Central, picking up Idaho, Montana & Utah. Obama will likely flip Iowa and be projected the winner of the state who’s caucus propelled him on a path to the Democratic Nomination, shortly after the polls lose. The other state to watch is Nevada, where Obama lost the January caucus to Hillary Clinton but where polls have been very close. This state could be held for a while before being projected. It will likely go hand-in-hand with Colorado in terms of how, and when, it goes. By this time, if a majority of the big states have gone for Obama (especially if Ohio and Florida are called along with Pennsylvania), he could cross the 270-threashold. But my best bet is that although the outcome will likely be known, the networks will wait and be very cautious before projecting them—knowing that to do so will call the presidency, until they get more data. This leads us up to the 11pm hour.

 

11pm: With four traditionally Democratic states closing at this hour, California, Hawaii, Oregon & Washington could all go for Obama—and could put him over 270 at this time, if he hasn’t already reached that point in the 30 or 45 minutes leading up the close of voting in these states. At the very least, Obama is at 266 electoral votes at this time, waiting for just one of the close states to be called to put him over the top (whether that be Nevada, Florida, New Mexico, etc.) The presidential projection will likely come before midnight and just after the 11pm hour.

 

1am: The last polls close in Alaska where the GOP ticket, with Sarah Palin as #2, will be called for McCain. But stay up to watch the Senate Race with incumbent Senator Ted Stevens on the ballot. Just two weeks before Election Day, Steven’s corruption trail concluded in Washington.

 

McCain’s Comeback Strategy: Shift the tone of the election night coverage, likely to be centered around Obama and a historic win, by holding back Obama in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Obama can still win without both states, especially if he picks up Florida and/or Ohio in the process, but this is where a McCain comeback has to start. Then it has to extend to Ohio. Beyond that, it has to hold the Red States of Bush ’04—Nevada, Iowa and Colorado. At this point, it is a very hard task baring a dramatic change in the course of the campaign and a dramatic underestimating of exactly who makes up the electorate (and what prejudices they hold).

 

For this week, we’re still looking for a driving theme. We might get that tomorrow with the Palin Interview with Brian Williams—it has to be another element on a McCain comeback should one be in the works. Behind the surface, there is still talk about Joe the Plumber (he tied with coverage of the economy according to a Project of Excellence in Journalism study last week) and his different aliases but there really is nothing substantive that the campaign is being driven by this week. Watch to see what develops. Watch the release of a McCain article in the New York Times Magazine online tomorrow to start the mid-week conversation.