The Golden Report for Sunday October 26
Just 9 days to go until the presidential election and the end of the weekend marks a pivot point in the campaign—from issue/message-driven campaign appearances and attacks, including a coordinated media response and message building, to a culminating closing argument and an emphasis on get out the vote. We are seeing this in the Obama campaign as the candidate, who took some time off the trail at the end of the week to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii, concluded a “Red State tour” which was time to occur with early voting in red-state battlegrounds that the campaign would like, and the polls say is possible, to flip blue. The campaign has already given an indication that tomorrow will mark the beginning of a closing argument stump speech, tying together all of the elements surrounding the identity of “Barack Obama” that voters have come to know since his debut on the national stage in Boston in 2004. The Obama closing argument will serve two purposes: 1) to seal the deal with voters who are still undecided, or leaning in his direction and 2) to mobilize committed Obama supporters to vote-and to take a friend with them. The Obama campaign promises the most-coordinated ground operation of any campaign in history, using the framework that was established in the primary season in all 50-states and building upon that in an unprecedented grassroots effort that will outrival the innovative Karl Rove-built 72-hour operation of Bush ’00 & Bush ’04.
For McCain, sealing the deal in a closing argument is made more difficult because his standing according to national and swing state public opinion polling is well behind Obama. It appears that the Arizona Senator’s campaign is centering around this theme for their closing argument: that by electing Obama, he will join with Nancy Pelosi and potentially a filibuster-proof Senate for unilateral Democratic control of government. The names Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and even Barney Frank and Hillary Clinton are likely to be used all in one grouping with Barack Obama on the campaign trail this final week. This is potentially a good rallying theme for McCain, and Republican incumbents in danger around the country, to gather behind. But does it come too late? Have too many voters already made up their minds—and in over half of the country already cast ballots—to make a difference? Or is it possible that, in the minds of voters, Republicans have screwed government up so much that they want Democrats in control more so than where they were put after 2006—the voters want the Democrats to have a larger majority and a greater mandate. Even if the latter is not their intention, it is looking like the most plausible outcome on November 5th.
In the next 10 days, expect the conversation from within Republican circles to move to looking beyond 2008, into 2010 (where their prospects are much better) and, moreover, to a fundamental reorganization and structure of the Republican Party, everything from a change in leadership to a change in platform—beginning with a change in ideas. Some may argue that the Republican losses of 2008 were as great as they may be because the party never made any changes after being engulfed by a tidal wave of Democratic change in 2006. Can a damaged and beleaguered party build itself back up and WHO will lead the party in this new direction?
On the flip side, if Barack Obama wins, who will he tap to lead the Democratic Party or will he leave Howard Dean—with his 50-state strategy which may be credited for a larger majority, and red state pickups, at the helm of the DNC? Will he inspire a new generation of Democratic politicians and leaders? In Congress, will the old guard Democrats regained the power that they once held after the 2006 midterms cede any of it to the new Democrats, both from 2 years ago and from this cycle, who will now make up a majority of the Democratic Caucus? Playing out after the election and behind the scenes during any lame duck session: in-road fighting for leadership positions in both Congressional parties, committee chairmanships, etc.
This week, as much as our attention needs to be focused on every element and angle of the Presidential caucus, knowing that every action or incident on the trail has the potentially to be magnified 100-fold because of the media scrutiny and attention at the end of the cycle, we also need to look ahead to what will happen 10 days and 2 weeks from now, the beginning of the first post-9/11 presidential transition. The defining moment, the pivotal time, the new beginning, starts immediately and does not wait for the Inauguration. There’s going to be little break until during the holidays and expect things to move very quickly, from cabinet announcements to structural changes. How does a huge field operation which will reach its peak just one day earlier immediately transition itself to benefit a new President? The leadership required to sustain the level of commitment and engagement will be the first challenge facing a President-elect Obama. If McCain wins the election, it will in many ways be a surprising win and he may have to begin by answering questions about how and why he thinks he won. The legitimacy of the vote may be challenged but, at the very least, an enormous network of Obama supporters will be beyond disappointed—anger could erupt if race is considered to be a factor in a surprising Obama loss.
Among the specific things to watch for on the campaign trail in the important final full week:
· Which states the candidates visit and which states are added to their schedules at the last minute. Where do the campaigns decide to devote time and resources
· Along that note, do the campaigns shift ad money or ground resources from one state to another. This is our best indication of what the internal campaign polling is saying
· What do the campaigns suggest are the key states on their path to 270. Obama seemingly has more electoral options than McCain—watch to see if the campaign spell out their strategy plans
· Continue to watch the early vote, as 33 states will be voting at some point over the next week. Look for turnout numbers, broken down by race and party affiliation and the percentage change from 2004.
· Watch but put less and less emphasis on the daily tracking polling and any other national numbers—polling becomes harder and harder to do closer and closer to an election, although we probably won’t reach this point for another 5 days
· Watch to see how the major party candidates offer help, in terms of endorsements, appearances in ads, appearances in person, or campaign ground resources, to Senate & House races
· Watch any internal campaign feuds—competing messages from Palin and McCain, for example, or from two different senior McCain campaign staffers. Everyone is tired near the end of the campaign (including the media!) so real emotions may have a way of coming out. It becomes harder to keep a tight lid on the message that the campaigns want to deliver—watch to see which campaign does a better job of holding to their formulated closing argument
· Watch Obama’s Wednesday Night Network Primetime Half Hour. Is it seen as presumptuous? Does it seal the deal?
· Watch the McCain’s Campaign criticisms of the media—we saw a little bit of that today with John McCain on Meet the Press with Tom Brokaw, watch to see if any more spills over and, as noted above, with the reporters covering the campaign tired, watch to see if there are unintended consequences of an already tense relationship
· Continue to watch for the influence of unplanned outside events to influence the race and, if (when) they happen for the IMMEDIATE reactions from the two campaigns
· Watch the market, a slew of earnings figures—which helped to send the Dow lower last week—are expected this week and the Fed meets to decide on Interest Rates
· Watch the Palin/McCain relationship. What does Sarah Palin say this week? Does she do any interviews? Press Conferences? This is a dynamic that the PRESS may want to catch on to
· Does the “total control of Washington” argument resonate with voters?
· Watch to see if we get any more indication of possible cabinet members in a Obama or McCain Administration? If the transition is going to start very soon after the election then we can’t keep our eye off of the next big story
· And of course, don’t forget that we have very important Senate, House & Gubernatorial Races (not to mention ballot measures) going on in the states. Our attention needs to be there, and on the trail, and looking beyond this week.
posted by Chris Golden @ 10:54 PM
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