The Golden Report

Thoughts. Musings. Observations. Insight. The Golden Report.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Obama Campaign e-Mail

A half hour after leaving the air in a network TV ad buy, the Obama campaign sends a short e-mail to supporters.

 

From: Barack Obama [mailto:info@barackobama.com]
Sent: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 9:06 PM
To: Chris Golden
Subject: It's in your hands, Chris

 

Chris --

The next 6 days are going to be the toughest we've seen, and I need your support to reach as many voters as possible.

Will you donate $25 or more today to strengthen this movement for the final push?

This campaign is in your hands.

Thank you for everything you're doing,

Barack

Please Donate



 

 

Paid for by Obama for America

This email was sent to: chrisgolden07@hotmail.com

To unsubscribe, go to: http://my.barackobama.com/unsubscribe

 

The Golden Report for Wednesday October 29

It was suppose to be the high scale impressive ending to a historic presidential campaign and by its very nature it attracted tremendous attention: a half-hour bloc on (nearly) every major television network on the coverage—allowing unprecedented personal access to an untold number of tens of millions of Americans, purchased at a cost of almost $1 million per network. And by every expectation and every assessment, this experience in previously untouched presidential campaign territory succeeded by every metric it could be measured against. Say what you will, whether it was “the perfect ending,” “sealing the deal,” “icing on the cake,” or what have you, this was the ending that the campaign was looking for and the very nature of the production of the television program showed the vastness of their resources and the cutting edge of their innovation. Never before in modern American history has a candidate purchased air time to speak directly to the people, and then tell the stories that he has heard from the people during the course of his campaign to win their vote and then, in a marvel of modern technology, cut live to a rally in a swing state at exactly the right moment so as to carry the final 4 minutes live, in primetime, across the country—with no time going over.

 

A few notes:

·         Obama began by speaking directly into the camera and then stood up as the camera zoomed out to show Obama standing in front of a large American flag (he was also wearing a flag pin) in an office which looked strangely familiar to the Oval Office, although with a deeper mahogany desk. Then, at least six short cuts to Obama campaigning across the country and speaking with, and excuse the phrase, “the average Joe’s.” But by no coincidence, from important states and reflecting the demographics that the campaign was hoping to reach out to.

·         This was not a showy speech and it is hard to call the content like a “celebrity” as the McCain campaign tried to resurrect today (it was this argument that got the race close in July)

·         There was no mention of the Clintons

·         There was no mention of George Bush (except for a reference to the failed policy of the last eight years and criticism of the war in Iraq)

·         There was no direct mention of John McCain (no image of him, for example) and nothing to reference Sarah Palin

·         The cut to the live event in Florida was brilliant—no other way to describe it, although the word “live” should have stayed on the screen the whole time

·         Check the ratings to see how many people this reached—and in what areas of the country.

·         If this drives Thursday’s conversation (as anticipation of it did on Wednesday) then the Obama campaign will have succeeded in taking two critical days in the final week of this election.

 

Meanwhile, John McCain was on Larry King Live tonight and, in answering the question of whether or not he thought Barack Obama was a socialist, said, “No, but I do believe that he has been far left in American politics.”

 

Barack Obama is on The Daily Show later tonight.

"American Stories. American Solutions"

Here's the informercial which aired tonight on a bloc of broadcast networks paid for by the Obama Campaign. More analysis later (and John McCain's reaction below). An defining ending to the 2008 presidential race.

McCain Speaks in Reaction to Obama Infomercial

“I just finished meeting with a group of small business owners here.  They know what I know: our economy is in trouble and people are hurting.  I have laid out my plan:  One, I will protect savings and retirement accounts and get this stock market rising again.  Two, I will keep people in their homes and fix our housing market.  Three, I will create millions of high-paying jobs through tax cuts that spur economic growth – particularly for the small businesses which create 70 percent of all new jobs in this country.

 

“Now, tonight, we can all look forward to my opponent's performance in a television infomercial.  It used to be that only rain or some other act of God could delay the World Series, but I guess the network execs figured an Obama infomercial was close enough.  As with other infomercials, he's got a few things he wants to sell you: He's offering government-run health care … an energy plan guaranteed to work without drilling … and an automatic wealth spreader that folds neatly and fits under any bed.

 

“When you're watching this gauzy, feel-good commercial, just remember that it was paid for with broken promises.  Senator Obama signed a piece of paper committing to public financing of his campaign. Twice he looked the American people in the eye and said he would sit down with me before he abandoned public financing.  He didn't mean a word of it.  When it was in his interest to break his promise, he tossed it aside like it didn't mean a thing.  He is the first candidate since Watergate to abandon the public financing system, and his campaign is now being flooded with hundreds of millions of dollars in undisclosed and questionable donations.  His campaign has directly profited from his broken promise and because of that, the American people have to ask: what does the broken promise behind tonight's infomercial say about the value of his other commitments?

 

“That is what concerns small business owners and people all over this country.  Senator Obama's word doesn't appear to mean that much.  When he tells America tonight that's he's going to cut taxes for the middle class, people wonder if he'll keep his word because his record is supporting higher taxes on working families.  He voted 94 times for tax increases or against tax cuts.  When he tells America tonight he's going to cut spending, people wonder if he'll keep his word because his record is one of supporting higher spending.

 

“Whether it's Joe the Plumber in Ohio, or Andrew the Plumber and Sandra the sign-maker here in Florida, we can't even afford the tax hikes Senator Obama admits to.  His tax increases are exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown.”

 

Wednesday Campaign Update

Hard to admit that a break was needed at the all-important seven day mark but we're back through the homestretch chronicling the end of a historic election contest.

Wednesday's Campaign Update
Noon Edition

  • Obama has a new TV ad on the air this morning questioning John McCain's decision to pick Sarah Palin as his running mate; a continuation of the theme of erratic decision making and in many ways part of his closing argument to set a sharp contrast between he and the Arizona Senator. But feelings about Palin are pretty well cast and are unlikely to be swayed by any television advertising--it may just be an example of excess Obama ad dollars being spent to fire up the Democratic base at the beginning of the Get Out the Vote phase.
  • Meanwhile, John McCain is still leading--but inside the margin of error--in his home state of Arizona, according to a poll out this morning from Arizona State University. A late night loss--or even a narrow victory--in Arizona would be a major defeat for McCain. Campaign officials already had made plans to hold the election night rally in Phoenix and to have the candidates and their wives there. If their handle on Arizona becomes to rapidly slip away over the next week and it looks like McCain may actually lose, watch to see if the campaign makes a last-minute decision to change their headquarters location (but to where is another question because there doesn't look to be any evidently solid McCain battleground right now and no swing state where he has a strong lead)
  • Additionally, it can not be understated how serious it is that the Republican National Committee is on the air and spending money in states like Montana and West Virginia. Further, polls from Mississippi, Georgia & South Carolina all have McCain leading by less than 10 points.
  • About the Polls: It is true that over the last week the daily tracking polls, which are taken over a three day average, have tightened by about 2-3 points in McCain's favor--not the result of Obama losing strength (his support has remained constant for nearly 6 weeks) but an increase in support by McCain. What has been evident over the last week is a strong deviation between the daily tracking polls and the national head-to-head polling--where a 5-7 point difference exists in terms of Obama's. Some of this is to be expected for the tracking poll is traditionally much more volatile and respondent to even the slightest change (and its relative stability over the last month has been remarkable). What we've seen in the last few days is another deviation--this time between the national tracking polling and the swing-state polling, where Obama has opened up leads outside of the margin of error in key states won by George Bush four years ago and which are must-win states for John McCain in this election.
  • Which brings us to the refrain which will carry us through Tuesday night's election coverage: it's not about the popular vote (although that is important), it's about the electoral college. Similar to what we kept saying during the primary season, when it wasn't about the popular vote (ask Hillary Clinton) it was about the number of delegates won. Although it looks like Obama will win handily the popular vote regardless of if he wins in the Electoral College, the strength of the Democratic ground operation and the strategy of the Obama Campaign has been built around different scenarios to get to 270--so his lead in the states which will allow him to do that, and his strength in others which aren't necessary but which will increase his electoral (& popular) vote margin, is so important.
  • One week from today we will have a new President-elect who, at about this noon hour, will most likely deliver either a speech or answer a few questions on camera. There will be a lot of storylines developing next week but one of them surely will be about the losing candidate and why he lost--what was it about the internal dynamics of the campaign--what went wrong? To have one of the two campaigns already publicly talking about the weaknesses of their organization, and of their vice presidential candidate, is just the tip of the iceberg about what we are going to learn about what went on. And we will have a narrative almost immediately. After the election is called, Newsweek will advance its publication deadline of its next edition, including what will eventually be incorporated into a book by Evan Thomas chronicling the entirety of the 2008 race--from inside accounts recorded under the condition that they be embargoed until after the election
  • The candidates have done so many television interviews & appearances that is seems a little strange to put focus and weight on any particular one, but now that we are in the homestretch, every word is magnified, every interview becomes a big deal (even though its lifespan as a story is limited). Tonight, Barack Obama sits down with Charlie Gibson on World News--and makes an appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. (ABC is the only major network that the Obama half hour primetime special is not being broadcast on tonight). Tomorrow, Obama does interview with Brian Williams & Rachel Maddow and on Friday with Wolf Blitzer. Larry King has John McCain tonight, right after the Barack Obama special.
  • AP Battleground Polling released this morning
    • Pennsylvania: Obama 52%/McCain 40%
    • North Carolina: Obama 48%/McCain 46%
    • Virginia: Obama 49%/McCain 42%
    • Colorado: Obama 50%/McCain 41%
    • New Hampshire: Obama 55%/McCain 37%
    • Nevada: Obama 52%/McCain 40%
    • Florida: Obama 45%/McCain 43%
    • Ohio: Obama 48%/McCain 41%
  • Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania Poll: Obama 53%/McCain 40%
  • Quinnipiac Swing State Polling
    • Florida: Obama 47%/McCain 45%
    • Pennsylvania: Obama 53%/McCain 41%
    • Ohio: Obama 51%/McCain 42%
  • Tracking Polls so far today (Gallup at 1pm)
    • Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 50%/McCain 47%
    • Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking: Obama 49%/McCain 42%
    • Reuters/CSPAN/ZOGBY Daily* Tracking: Obama 49%/McCain 44%