The Golden Report

Thoughts. Musings. Observations. Insight. The Golden Report.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

The Night Before...

From Ben Smith’s Blog:

 

“On Monday night, Obama and McCain get a prime slot to make closing arguments to voters in two states the could decide the race:

On the eve of the presidential election, with "Monday Night Football" from Washington as the backdrop, candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are planning to participate in one-on-one interviews on ESPN via satellite.
ESPN's Chris Berman will do the segments earlier Monday, pending last-minute schedule changes by the candidates, and they'll air at halftime of the Redskins-Pittsburgh Steelers broadcast from D.C., the network announced. The game kicks off at 8:30 p.m. ET”

 

This will be must-watch television. Also watch to see where the candidates spend the final day before the election—and the night before—including any midnight get out the vote rallies.

Still Looking for Money--or Using Money to Look for Votes?

The Obama Campaign continued to send e-mails today asking for contributions to fund the final days of the campaign. And although the funding of the multi-million dollar campaign infrastructure is a priority, the campaign probably has enough resources to carry it through the next four days. One reason as to why the campaign keeps sending out these e-mails asking for funds is to rally the base—an insightful strategy in the days before the e-mails shift from asking for money to asking for time as part of the GOTV operation.

 

Here’s an e-mail that was sent to supporters today:

 

Chris --

I'm the Chief Financial Officer for Barack Obama's campaign. I track the donations coming in and the expenses going out.

I asked for the opportunity to write to you directly so that I could try to explain what's happening right now.

This organization has thousands of employees and spends millions of dollars a day -- and at the moment we're doing it without a safety net.

Our spending plans have been stretched by John McCain's negative attacks and the overwhelming resources of the Republican National Committee.

As of October 15th, John McCain and the RNC together had nearly $20 million more in cash than the combined total of Obama for America and the DNC. And just this week, we're facing new and unexpected spending against us in Montana and West Virginia.

Your incredible generosity has gotten us this far. But right now we need your help more than ever to get this campaign across the finish line.

Please donate $25 or whatever you can afford right now:


My team and I are working to stretch every dollar in order to keep as many paths to victory open as possible. But we need whatever help you can provide for this crucial final stretch.

Thank you,

MM

Marianne Markowitz
Chief Financial Officer
Obama for America

Thursday Polling Update

Slew of polls as everyone wants to get one before this week ends; many of these polls will come out with one more update before Election Day.

Here’s the paradox: These polls probably aren’t very good measures (especially the national & tracking ones) right now, but they mean more than ever before.

 

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby National “Track”: Obama 50%/McCain 43%

GWU/Battleground National “Track”: Obama 49%/McCAin 46%

 

NBC/Mason Dixon: MINNESOTA: Obama 48%/McCain 40%

 

Minnesota Public Radio: Obama 56%/McCain 37%

 

Marist Virginia: Obama 51%/McCain 47%

Marist Colorado: Obama 51%/McCain 45%

 

Gallup Daily Tracking: Likely Voter (Traditional Model): Obama 50%/McCain 45%

Gallup Daily Tracking: Likely Voter (Expanded Model): Obama 51%/McCain 44%

Gallup Daily Tracking: Registered Voter Model: Obama 50%/McCain 42%

NOTE: The closeness of the LV Traditional & Expanded Models (and their similarity to the RV)

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics National Head-to-Head: Obama 47%/McCain 44%

WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR

 

National Journal Swing State (with Diageo/Hotline)

North Carolina: Obama 47%/McCain 43$

Virginia: Obama 48%/McCain 44%

Colorado: Obama 48%/McCain 44%

Ohio: Obama 48%/McCain 41%

Florida: Obama 48%/McCain 44%

 

Coming later today—NYTimes national numbers and we’ll try to find some averages to get a good sense of what the aggregate of all these poll numbers are in the battleground states.

 

Tossup State Roundup

Real Clear Politics Toss-Up States:

FLORIDA

NORTH CAROLINA

MONTANA

NORTH DAKOTA

MISSOURI

INDIANA

GEORGIA

 

CQ Politics No Clear Favorite States:

NORTH CAROLINA

FLORIDA

INDIANA

MISSOURI

MONTANA

 

NBC Electoral Map Too Close to Call States:

OHIO

INDIANA

MISSOURI

NEVADA

NORTH CAROLINA

FLORIDA

 

CNN Electoral Map Toss-Up States:

NORTH CAROLINA

FLORIDA

OHIO

INDIANA

MISSOURI

 

NYTimes Electoral Map Toss-Up States:

NORTH CAROLINA

FLORIDA

OHIO

INDIANA

MISSOURI

NEVADA

 

States that are Toss-Ups across all of the above maps (“The Real Battlegrounds”): FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA, MISSOURI, INDIANA

 

The more current (RCP & CQ) tracking averages of state projections have MONTANA as too close; RCP also adds NORTH DAKOTA and GEORGIA (the only map to put those two states in his column)

 

The media organization surveys (NBC, CNN, NYT) all have OHIO as a tossup state; NYTimes & NBC add NEVADA.

Obama's on the Air with His Closing Argument

Two new television ads released by the Obama Campaign this morning follow-up on the primetime television special last night, serving two tasks 1) to get out the vote and rally the Democratic base & 2) to seal the deal with independent voters who are still on the fence.

The first ad, "Rearview Mirror," features images of G. W. Bush and later Bush & McCain in the rearview mirror of a car driving down a road with streetsigns with warnings of McCain's economic plan.



The second ad, "Something," is a tale of two ads. The first 16 seconds features images of common folks, the average voter--and picks up on the stories of the campaign theme that last night's television special was about. Then, after mentioning the endorsements of Warren Buffet & Colin Powell, the ad resembles those released early on by the Obama Campaign, with clips of the lofty rhetoric from his speeches.



And, speaking right now in Sarasota, Florida, Obama says, "If you want to see where John McCain will bring this country, all you have to do is look in the rearview mirror," continuing the theme from his first ad.

What we are seeing is evidence of a well coordinated and deeply funded closing argument campaign, right before we see what a tremendous get out the vote effort.

Thursday's Diageo/Hotline Poll

Usually one poll doesn't get its own blog post but with the feverish pace of the race in the final five days, these breaking details are of greater importance than ever before.

Obama leads 48/42 with 6 percent undecided in today's three-day average tracking poll. Obama's support has fallen below 50 while McCain's support has remained steady.

This is likely caused by a change in the numbers for Independents, where Obama's support has dropped from 48 percent to 41 percent over the last two days.

Tracking polls, especially in the final week, are very voliatile and have to be read with a great deal of caution--however, their surface results drive the race more than at any other time.

Most importantly in the poll, 19 percent of respondents say that they have already voted (the numbers compiled by GMU show that 17 million voters have already cast ballots). Of those in the DH poll, Obama leads 55 percent to 36 percent


Sent via Blackberry Wireless Device

Thursday Polling Update

CNN/TIME

Pennsylvania: Obama 53%/McCain 43%

North Carolina: Obama 52%/McCain 46%

Nevada: Obama 52%/McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 51%/McCain 47%

Arizona: McCain 53%/Obama36%

 

NBC/Mason Dixon

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%/McCain 43%/Undecided 9%

Arizona: McCain 48%/Obama 44%/Undecided 6%

 

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 51%/McCain 46%

 

 

GDP & Reaction

From the New York Times developing story on this morning’s GDP numbers:

“The Commerce Department reported this morning that consumers sharply cut their spending this summer, causing the United States economy to shrink at annual rate of 0.3 percent. By almost all accounts, the economy is now in recession. The last quarter in which consumers reduced their spending came in 1991. Since then, neither the recession of 2001 nor the slow income growth of the past seven years have kept households from increasing their consumption. They often relied on debt — in the form of home-equity loans, mortgage refinancings and credit-card loans — to continue spending.”

 

Reactions from the Campaign Trail, released within minutes of each other

 

Obama:

This morning, we learned that GDP has fallen for the first time this year, which means America is producing less and selling less and our economy is shrinking. American consumers were especially hard hit, experiencing their largest decline in spending in 28 years as wages failed to keep up with the rising cost of living. The decline in our GDP didn’t happen by accident – it is a direct result of the Bush Administration's trickle down, Wall Street first, Main Street last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years and plans to continue for the next four. These policies didn’t work then, they won’t work now, and I’m running for President to end them. We need to grow our economy by creating jobs, providing tax relief for middle class families, and helping people stay in their homes, and that is exactly what I will do as President

 

McCain:

Today's announcement that third quarter GDP fell at a 0.3 percent rate confirms what Americans already knew: the economy is shrinking. Barack Obama would accelerate this dangerous course. According to the independent Center for Data Analysis, Barack Obama's new policies will destroy nearly 6 million jobs over the next decade.

Barack Obama's ideologically-driven plans to redistribute income will impose higher taxes on families, small businesses, and investors; expensive, rigid, job-killing health mandates on employers; energy policies that fail to promote domestic oil, natural gas, and coal, and will impose a massive Washington-driven regulation of everything from home furnaces to factories; isolationist trade policies that endanger one out of every five jobs; and massive new spending plans that that will burden the economy and saddle our children with debt. Barack Obama is change Americans cannot afford.

John McCain's comprehensive reforms will clean up Wall Street, clean up Washington, and create nearly 2 million more jobs over the same period. John McCain offers a new direction and a real choice: lower taxes and under control spending; lower health care costs and portable insurance; an energy policy that declares independence from dangerous and unstable sources, values the environment, and supports growth; serious reforms to taxes, education, and trade to promote global competitiveness, and short-run plans to help the seniors, savers, homeowners, and workers hurt by the financial crisis.

 

[Wall Street opens in 5 minutes]

______________________________

 

Thursday on the Trail

As we enter the final five days, where the candidates (& their spouses and surrogates) are becomes as important as ever. Also continue to watch to see if schedules change at the last minute—if new states are added or subtracted. And watch to see the crowd size and interest level at these events.

 

OBAMA, Thursday- FLORIDA (Sarasota) & VIRGINIA (Virginia Beach)

BIDEN, Thursday- MISSOURI (Arnold) & PENNSYLVANIA (Williamsport)

 

McCAIN, Thursday-OHIO (Defiance)-seriously! (Sardusky, Elyvia, Mentor)—again, seriously!

PALIN, Thursday-MISSOURI (Cape Giradeau) & PENNSYLVANIA (Erie, Williamsport)

 

Note that the two vice presidential candidates are in the same two states tomorrow and will end the day in the same city.

And watch John McCain to make mention of Defiance & Mentor, Ohio.