Pre-SOTU Questions & Thoughts

Well Washington is definitely abuzz about President Obama's State of the Union Address tonight. Here are some of my thoughts T-5 hours before the speech:

1) How "big" a speech is this, really? Sure, every time the President addresses a joint session of Congress, it is a big deal, and especially when it's the first SOTU of an Administration, but with no expected major policy announcements and an American public seemingly anxious, distracted and angered- will tonight's speech really be remembered as a "turning point," "crossroads" or "pivotal moment" as it is being described in the media today? I'm doubtful.

2) Will there be any surprises? This week the White House tested expected SOTU announcements to freeze non-discretionary non-security related spending, present a five-point Middle Class Agenda and create a budget reduction task force. Today, reports are all but confirming that the President will make repeal of the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy a part of the speech. And in just a few hours, the first leaks of the actual text of the speech will come out. It's possible that the Administration will have some surprises, but they are likely to be subtle, at best.

3) My biggest question tonight: does the President continue with the narrative that drove his election and the first year of his Administration and use the speech to give a progress report of that journey, or is the speech narrowly focused on job creation and the economy with just brief mention of other issues. In the President's first two addresses to Congress, we heard a similar theme: American renewal. Build a better future. A permanent, lasting economic recovery. Will the same language that has been used throughout the Administration make a return tonight, or will it be replaced with something new?

4) How partisan is the rhetoric of the audience (inside the room and of TV pundits)? In September, Congressman Joe Wilson became a national disgrace (to some) and a hero (to others) for interrupting the President by yelling "You Lie!" during a health care address. Although another outburst is unlikely tonight, we'll be able to sense the partisan atmosphere by the number of standing ovations that are split (one side or the other). House Minority Leader Boehner has said that he has a war room team to send out rapid responses during the President's speech rebutting his claims- even before the GOP Response. The SOTU has become the ultimate spin game and, unfortunately, it seems that Republicans already know their election-year talking points before the President even reaches the podium.

On the policy side, I'm really interested in the President's talk on education reform tonight. I also hope that he makes mention of the accomplishments that the Administration and Congress have had this year: from reforming the tobacco industry to cracking down on credit card companies and predatory lenders, passing a historic national service law and making progress towards eroding waste, fraud and abuse in military contracts. The economic urgency and the consumption of health care in the media's agenda obscured these key victories, and the President should remind the American people just how productive Congress and his White House have been.

I'll be liveblogging the President's State of the Union Address beginning around 8pm tonight.