2010: What's on the Agenda?

It’s time to stop the reflections of the year that was and focus on the year that is, and all that it will bring with it. 2010 is an election year but, as the Christmas terror incident reminded us, we live in extraordinary times so this won’t just be any normal (read: predictable) midterm election.

The President returns to Washington tomorrow facing a full plate. Here are just some of the issues that are going to be dominating his agenda, and that of Congress, this year:

Health Care

In dramatic fashion on Christmas Eve, the US Senate took a historic step forward passing the President’s signature domestic policy initiative. An informal conference between House and Senate staffers started the week after Christmas. Expect those discussions to intensify in coming days and for the announcement of an agreement by the end of January. Final passage could come on or near the date of the President’s State of the Union Address, unless something unexpected causes it be bumped until February. Republicans will likely continue to use procedural hurdles to attempt to stop the bill, which will delay the inevitable passage. The President’s aides expect that his poll numbers will begin to rise after this bill is passed and the Administration transitions to discuss the economy

Jobs

Before leaving for Christmas, the House passed a job creation package (including over 12,000 new AmeriCorps positions). Perhaps in return for major concessions on health care, House leaders will put the Senate under immense pressure early this year to pass the bill and quickly send it to the President.

Financial Reform

The House took the first step in 2009 in passing comprehensive financial reform legislation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd has said he expects the Senate to act early this year on that package. However, with an already full agenda, it does not seem as if the body will until after health care and jobs-so perhaps not until March or April, when appetite for a politically difficult vote will be less.

Global Warming/Energy

This is the big question looking at the Senate this year: will John Kerry and Barbara Boxer convince Majority Leader Reid to force consideration and a tough vote on global warming legislation. Senators facing re-election this year, especially moderate Democrats, will find this vote very difficult to swallow--as will their counterparts in the House should the bill get to a final Conference version. Progress will depend on the leadership of the President and how much he is insistent on passage.

Immigration

There have been reports in recent days of the White House reaching out to allies in the immigration debate, promising action in 2010 on immigration reform. Neither the House or Senate have acted and there are no clear proposals out there. Again, this will come down to Presidential leadership. One possibility: the Administration ties immigration to the economy & jobs and is able to pursue a reform overhaul.

Afghanistan

Liberal Democrats opposed to President Obama’s new Afghanistan war policy will find it hard to vote for additional funding. A Defense funding bill is likely to be needed in March and the Administration may have to expend a lot of capital convincing members of its own party to support the Commander-in-Chief’s decision.

Terrorism

After the failed Christmas Day terror attack, terrorism and homeland security are again at the very top of the national agenda. The Senate is under pressure to quickly confirm President Obama’s nominee for TSA Director, despite a hold by South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint. Majority Leader Reid has said that he will file cloture when the Senate reconvenes and force a vote on his nomination. Also, there will be more debate on the closure of Guantanamo Bay and the proposal to transfer inmates to Illinois, as well as aviation security. Congress will hold hearings into the attack, possibly issuing subponeas to intelligence officials in the Administration and may vote on funding for full body scan machines, which will again pit liberal Democrats, who are fierce privacy proponents, against their party leaders.

Other Issues

After passing a short term increase in the federal debt ceiling, the Senate will vote again on a more permanent extension on January 20th. The House will also need to approve the measure. President Obama is expected to make fiscal reform a key component of his State of the Union Address in late January (or early February).

How much this plays into the annual Appropriations Process remains to be seen. Given it is an election year, do not expect Congress to finish work on the 13 annual bills before the end of the fiscal year on September 30th.

Finally, Congress passed short term extensions of many programs in 2009 and will have to decide whether to continue to extend, or pass reauthorization measures, in 2010. These include highway funding, the FAA, the Patriot Act, and No Child Left Behind.