An Address on the State of the Union

President Obama addresses a joint session of Congress tonight, for the third time in his young presidency but for the first as a formal, Constitutionally-mandated, Address on the State of the Union.

The last time that the President addressed Congress was in September, specifically on the issue of health insurance reform and just one week after the passing of Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy.

Four months later, the President returns to the House chamber having not signed the bill he had hoped to, even though both houses of Congress did pass, by razor-thin margins, health reform packages in 2009.

A Senator from Massachusetts will also be mentioned in tonight's address, White House aides say, although he is not expected to be in the Chamber. Massachusetts Republican Senator-elect Scott Brown has become a symbol for a growing national populist anti-incumbent sentiment.

The President is not expected to announce any sweeping initiatives or packages in his speech, which is also expected to be heavily slanted towards domestic issues rather than foreign policy. In the days leading up to the speech, the White House leaked word of perhaps the most talked about element of the speech: a 3-year freeze on non-discretionary non-military spending.

There are also hints that the President may announce a policy position on revoking the "Don't Ask Don't Tell" military policy towards gays and lesbians.

As always, all eyes will be on Washington for the annual speech. I'll be live-blogging it beginning at 8pm tonight.

An Agreement on Reducing the Debt

Late this Saturday, President Obama issued a statement announcing his strong support for a deficit reduction commission, created by legislative statute, which would make recommendations on way for the United States to reduce the budget deficit and the national debt.

The issue is currently being debated in the Senate as part of a bill that will raise the national debt ceiling- the statutory cap to which the debt can reach. The current ceiling, set in December, is set to be reached by the middle of next month and Democrats are seeking to raise the limit until after the midterm elections in November. The Commission, supported by Sen. Judd Gregg and Sen. Kent Conrad, would report back to Congress early next year. It is unclear if the support the President announced today would extend to making the recommendations of the Commission binding on the Congress (i.e. subject to an up/down vote instead of just consideration).

It is also unclear if the Senate has the 60 votes that will be necessary to pass the Conrad/Gregg Amendment. If the Senate fails to act, the President's statement today indicates that he will authorize a commission by executive order.


That provision is subject to Constitutional interpretation. There are serious and legitimate concerns over an unelected "commission" essentially writing legislation for Congress to consider. No matter how well-intentioned, the issue is probably best left at making recommendations for the committees of jurisdiction to then consider. This issue will likely be sorted out in the coming weeks.

As the Obama Administration makes a clear pivot to jobs and the economy, deficit reduction is expected to be a key component of the 2010 legislative strategy and the President is expected to take about his proposals in his first State of the Union Address next week.

Below is the full text of the President's statement:


January 23, 2010

STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT ON A STATUTORY FISCAL COMMISSION

The serious fiscal situation that our country faces reflects not only the severe economic downturn we inherited, but also years of failing to pay for new policies—including a new entitlement program and large tax cuts that most benefited the well-off and well-connected. The result was that the surpluses projected at the beginning of the last administration were transformed into trillions of dollars in deficits that threaten future job creation and economic growth.

These deficits did not happen overnight, and they won't be solved overnight. We not only need to change how we pay for policies, but we also need to change how Washington works. The only way to solve our long-term fiscal challenge is to solve it together – Democrats and Republicans.

That's why I strongly support legislation currently under consideration to create a bipartisan, fiscal commission to come up with a set of solutions to tackle our nation's fiscal challenges – and call on Senators from both parties to vote for the creation of a statutory, bipartisan fiscal commission.

With tough choices made together, a commitment to pay for what we spend, and responsible stewardship of our economy, we will be able to lay the foundation for sustainable job creation and economic growth while restoring fiscal sustainability to our nation.

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UPDATE: Here is a statement released by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer:

Hoyer Statement on President's Support for a Statutory Fiscal Commission and PAYGO

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WASHINGTON, DC - House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (MD) released the following statement today after President Obama announced his support for the creation of a statutory fiscal commission:

"I appreciate President Obama's announcement today reiterating his support for statutory paygo and affirming support for a fiscal commission.

"This announcement should eliminate any questions about the President's commitment to creating an effective fiscal commission to deal with our fiscal challenges. It is now up to Republicans to follow his lead by supporting the Conrad-Gregg proposal and, if it fails, working with the President to make a commission created by executive order a success.

"As we work to bring down the deficits created by their reckless policies during eight years in office, I hope Republicans see this as an opportunity to work together to tackle our nation's fiscal challenges."

Conference Committee or Ping Pong?

Here's a debate that will only rage inside the beltway: whether the House and Senate reconcile their differences on the sweeping health care reform legislation through a formal Conference Committee (the way we all learned about it on the "how a bill becomes a law" chart), or through a more informal process known as "ping-pong (they teach you that in classes on "Congress and Legislative Behavior").

Republicans--and even today some liberal Democrats, as well as transparency hawks--are crying foul. Even Brian Lamb, the near-God who is the founder of C-SPAN sent a letter to Congressional leaders urging that negotiations be open to "electronic media."

The thing is: the legislative process around health care legislation has been the most open and transparent of any bill in Congressional history. This process began a year ago, with the first subcommittee hearings. There were public markups in all five committees with jurisdiction. There was a day (and night) long debate on the House floor and over a month of debate in the Senate--both times the bills were posted online, in legi-speak, for the American people to download and read in the comfort of their own homes. The final bill that will be produced out of conference also be online before the final vote. Never before have the American people had so much access to an active piece of historic legislation.

Remember the Medicare Prescription Drug bill that Congress rammed through in the dead of night? The one that the Republican-controlled House kept the vote open until 5am so they could corral the final "yea"? The one that was not online, that yielded more unfunded mandates on the states and the one that this current health bill seeks to correct? That bill didn't even get committee votes. It didn't even get two considerations in both houses. You think that bill was put together by a Conference Committee?

This reform could have proceeded the same way. Pelosi, Reid and Obama could have sat down and crafted a bill, attached it as an amendment to an existing piece of legislation and held one vote in both chambers. Could you imagine the public outcry then?

The fact that our nation and our elected officials have spent a whole year (and you could make the point that some have spent more like three decades) on this issue says a lot. I'm happy that Democratic leaders are finally standing up to the obstruction that the GOP wishes to throw at anything and anything that comes out of President Obama's White House.

It's time for the Congress to pass this health care reform bill which will lower costs, extend coverage and fulfill a dream that health care is a right for every American.

2010: What's on the Agenda?

It’s time to stop the reflections of the year that was and focus on the year that is, and all that it will bring with it. 2010 is an election year but, as the Christmas terror incident reminded us, we live in extraordinary times so this won’t just be any normal (read: predictable) midterm election.

The President returns to Washington tomorrow facing a full plate. Here are just some of the issues that are going to be dominating his agenda, and that of Congress, this year:

Health Care

In dramatic fashion on Christmas Eve, the US Senate took a historic step forward passing the President’s signature domestic policy initiative. An informal conference between House and Senate staffers started the week after Christmas. Expect those discussions to intensify in coming days and for the announcement of an agreement by the end of January. Final passage could come on or near the date of the President’s State of the Union Address, unless something unexpected causes it be bumped until February. Republicans will likely continue to use procedural hurdles to attempt to stop the bill, which will delay the inevitable passage. The President’s aides expect that his poll numbers will begin to rise after this bill is passed and the Administration transitions to discuss the economy

Jobs

Before leaving for Christmas, the House passed a job creation package (including over 12,000 new AmeriCorps positions). Perhaps in return for major concessions on health care, House leaders will put the Senate under immense pressure early this year to pass the bill and quickly send it to the President.

Financial Reform

The House took the first step in 2009 in passing comprehensive financial reform legislation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd has said he expects the Senate to act early this year on that package. However, with an already full agenda, it does not seem as if the body will until after health care and jobs-so perhaps not until March or April, when appetite for a politically difficult vote will be less.

Global Warming/Energy

This is the big question looking at the Senate this year: will John Kerry and Barbara Boxer convince Majority Leader Reid to force consideration and a tough vote on global warming legislation. Senators facing re-election this year, especially moderate Democrats, will find this vote very difficult to swallow--as will their counterparts in the House should the bill get to a final Conference version. Progress will depend on the leadership of the President and how much he is insistent on passage.

Immigration

There have been reports in recent days of the White House reaching out to allies in the immigration debate, promising action in 2010 on immigration reform. Neither the House or Senate have acted and there are no clear proposals out there. Again, this will come down to Presidential leadership. One possibility: the Administration ties immigration to the economy & jobs and is able to pursue a reform overhaul.

Afghanistan

Liberal Democrats opposed to President Obama’s new Afghanistan war policy will find it hard to vote for additional funding. A Defense funding bill is likely to be needed in March and the Administration may have to expend a lot of capital convincing members of its own party to support the Commander-in-Chief’s decision.

Terrorism

After the failed Christmas Day terror attack, terrorism and homeland security are again at the very top of the national agenda. The Senate is under pressure to quickly confirm President Obama’s nominee for TSA Director, despite a hold by South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint. Majority Leader Reid has said that he will file cloture when the Senate reconvenes and force a vote on his nomination. Also, there will be more debate on the closure of Guantanamo Bay and the proposal to transfer inmates to Illinois, as well as aviation security. Congress will hold hearings into the attack, possibly issuing subponeas to intelligence officials in the Administration and may vote on funding for full body scan machines, which will again pit liberal Democrats, who are fierce privacy proponents, against their party leaders.

Other Issues

After passing a short term increase in the federal debt ceiling, the Senate will vote again on a more permanent extension on January 20th. The House will also need to approve the measure. President Obama is expected to make fiscal reform a key component of his State of the Union Address in late January (or early February).

How much this plays into the annual Appropriations Process remains to be seen. Given it is an election year, do not expect Congress to finish work on the 13 annual bills before the end of the fiscal year on September 30th.

Finally, Congress passed short term extensions of many programs in 2009 and will have to decide whether to continue to extend, or pass reauthorization measures, in 2010. These include highway funding, the FAA, the Patriot Act, and No Child Left Behind.