The Great Snowpocalypse

It's been nearly a month since I've posted a blog entry- that's an unfortunate trend that I hope will not continue. The month of February so far has been very busy for me.

My work leading myImpact.org has gotten more intense and as the result of some successes that have accumulated in the past few weeks I now find myself with more responsibility and, with them, new challenges. By far our biggest project this month is a national online contest, Pepsi Refresh, where we are competing for a $25,000 grant. After 3 weeks of planning before the contest opened, the first two weeks of the four-month contest have been very successful, and we have held the Third Place position for the last nine days. I fully expect that the contest will become increasingly more intense in the second half and am gearing up for a large final push.

This funding will go along way towards moving myImpact from an idea into an organization and behind the scenes we are working through the hairy details of forming a Board, creating bylaws and transitioning from two friends working on something cool to the responsibilities that come with a public charity. This is a difficult process, but a necessary one in the life cycle of an organization, and I continue to learn so much as we go through it. On February 1st, I officially assumed the position of Executive Director- and will be formally "hired" by our newly formed Board in the weeks to come.

Then, with a busy February schedule filled with conferences, speeches, meetings and events, DC gets hit with a series of historic snow events that was popularly called "Snowpocalypse." In the course of one week, we were hit with three storms that dumped 6 inches, 27.5 inches and 12 inches respectfully. I was literally snowed-in for a week- and the crippled capital city is just now beginning to get back to normal.

Although it might have seemed fun (and potentially productive) to be snowed in for a week- it was surprisingly very stressful. City transportation services ground to a halt. Bus service was suspended for nearly a week. Above-ground Metrorail stations were closed, opened in shifts, and then closed again for the second snowstorm. Below ground, trains were only running at 30 minute intervals- and that was before a derailment during Friday morning's back to work commute. The residential street where I live was only plowed sporadically through the week- until Thursday night when a bulldozer came to plow (an unbelievable sight that I have never experienced before!). Then, events and meetings that were scheduled were canceled- some at the last minute- and still have yet to be rescheduled. Even an online meeting that I had scheduled for Wednesday night was postponed because one of the participants did not have power. And I haven't even mentioned the grocery stores- I went on Thursday and Wednesday before the respective storms and stood in line for over a half hour both times to check out- had to fight for a basket- and had to dig through a small selection of available food items. I felt that we were living in a city under siege, and in many ways, we were. Although I survived (and so did the city), it was not as cool as a week of snow may seem- and we all will be working through the effects of the storm at least for the rest of this month.

Not a lot has happened in the news- because Washington ground to a halt last week and the President's schedule was suspended. Congress didn't even bother to come in for work. There's going to be a big health care summit at the end of the month- although whether or not this is an opportunity to move forward is a subject for debate. The President signed PAYGO legislation that also includes an increase in the public debt limit. This morning, a current and former Vice President went at each other during different Sunday Morning talk shows. And the Olympic Winter Games have begun in Vancouver- where ironically they are in need of the snow that we have too much of back East.

As we move into this next week, the third of Pepsi Refresh and a return to normality, I'll attempt to update the blog more regularly (as well as the website..Google Reader...Digg...Google Buzz...).

The Golden Report for Saturday January 23

I'm glad I'm not alone in this. At the recommendation of a friend who I follow on Google Reader, I am now subscribed to the feed of Ezra Klein, the young Washington Post blogger who has covered the health care story better than any other journalist. One of his posts was titled "Tab Dump"-- which is the simplest yet best definition for this phenomena (some may call it a syndrome). I started posting these intermediate "Golden Report for --Date-" blog entries for the purposing of tab dumping. What is that? Over the course of a day, a lot of links pass through Twitter, Facebook, e-mail, RSS feeds and other articles. Many times, I will click on them and spend about 5 seconds glancing at the page then go back to what I was doing, thinking that I will return to the page later. Sometimes I do but, more often than not, especially with news articles, that doesn't happen for several days, if ever. I blame Twitter and its client TweetDeck for this. If I see a tweet of interest, I'll click the link so that I don't have to search for it later. What happens is that my computer screen looks like it did on Thursday of this week: with 14 windows open, some with 10-15 tabs. Anyway, as I said, I'm glad that I'm not alone in this. So, today's tab dump, which I classily describe under a more sophisticated title:

Washington Post/Thursday: "Health care debate delayed action on other big issues" -- the biggest political story of the week (besides a certain special election in Massachusetts) was the uncertainty around the Congressional agenda, specifically the future of health care reform. Did it die this week? Probably not. Is the future path clear? Far from it. And there a lot of other issues for Congress to deal with, that they had been delaying, and that will be all the more difficult now with 59 votes in the Senate.

TIME, "A Mixed Record in a Crisis-Filled Year"--part of a series looking issue by issue at the first year of the Obama Presidency. Robert Gibbs made a good point this week that the media has a fascination with anniversaries but that there seem to be more with Obama than previous Administrations. There was the first 100 days, the second one hundred days, the first six months, the anniversary of the election, the end of the first calendar year and now the end of the first presidency year. Each has been met with similar media stories and discussion--it seems as if we have been reflecting since November.

Related: TIME's Joe Klein had a Q&A with President Obama at this end of this week

Still Related: Washington Post: "One-Year Later: How Obama Has Turned Into a Wartime Commander in Chief" -- an important point to consider even as Obama has been chided this week for his domestic policy & political leadership, he is generally praised for his handling of foreign affairs, international relations and war policy. Conservatives, including Scott Brown, support the strategy for Afghanistan. And few can deny the leadership the US is showing by its swift coordinated response to the Haiti Earthquake. American voters tend to look at the full picture, not just the fascination of the moment. At war, the President has faced enormous challenges this year and has handled each with high marks.

NYTimes, "Times to Charge For Frequent Access to Its Website" I deferred to Brian Reich, author of Media Rules and one of the most intellectual minds in the business for analysis of this move by The Paper of Record. Brian said he supports it, if the Times presents valuable, quality content and reporting behind the password and credit card info. The same old is not going to cut it: the Times has to innovate if they want readers to pay for their news. This move gives them a lot of potential but, as they did with the last example in pay per read, my bet is that they are going to blow it.

The Golden Report for Sunday January 17

It's been a busy news weekend, as the relief effort continues in Haiti, the Massachusetts special senate election looks like it is going to come down to the wire and as we close in on the one-year mark of the Obama Presidency. Here are some of the stories that I'm reading, and that I flagged to post some additional comments on:

POLITICO, "Shah, Keen Step Into Haiti Spotlight" -- If you watched any (or all) of the Sunday Shows this morning, then you saw Dr. Rajiv Shah and Lt. Gen. Ken Keen. Shah, the Director of USAID (Agency for International Development) and Keen (Deputy Commander of US Southern Command) both did a "Full Ginsburg"- the term used to describe when a person is interviewed on all Sunday morning shows in the same morning. Shah, just confirmed by the Senate three weeks ago, was particularly impressive this morning--his stature is likely to rise as a result of the calm but professional way in which he is handling this tragedy. Mike Allen reported in Playbook today that the Administration recognizes Shah's value, and had him fully staffed for the Shows, with the National Security Council & State Department traveling with him around town to the various networks. Shah was with Secretary of State Clinton in Haiti yesterday, returned home about 2am ET and was up at 5:58am to get ready for the Sunday Shows.

• There's more about Shah in a Washington Post article from last week "Officials hail USAID chief's crisis management skills" 

Washington Post Op/Ed "What Karl Rove Got Wrong on the US Debt" In Friday's paper, David Axelrod, a chief strategist to President Obama, refuted claims made last Sunday by Karl Rove, who argued that Pres. Obama would have run up "more debt by October than Pres. Bush did in eight years." That is a clearly false statement but what was significant was that Axelrod openly attacked and refuted Rove- a change in strategy for the Administration. To this point, the Administration has not directly responded when attacked. Another sign this was a strategic shift from deep inside the West Wing? Bill Burton, the deputy WH Press Secretary, this week created a Twitter account (@BillBurton44) in which he challenged claims made by a reporter (in this case, Ed Henry, @edhenrycnn). The debt is going to get some more attention this week as the Senate begins consideration of a bill to raise the national debt ceiling. 

NYTimes Op/Ed, "The Underlying Tragedy" by David Brooks -- Brooks takes the Haiti earthquake and asks the question, "Are we just going to rebuild and continue with the same old, same old?" while arguing that we should not- but the disaster in Haiti as a complete clean-slate to rebuild the country and prove that development can work. Interesting- and timely- but would have been better if Brooks had, let's say, taken a look back at the last major international disaster- the Sumatra Tsunami- and seen if what he proposes be done in Haiti happened there.

Newsweek, "Why Haiti Matters," by Barack Obama- It's a rare occasion when a sitting President writes an essay that is the cover of a national newsmagazine, but after the Earthquake this week, Newsweek editor Jon Meacham reached out to the Administration, and the President accepted. This line should speak to the patriotism of every American, "we act for a very simple reason: in times of tragedy, the United States of America steps forward and helps. That is who we are. That is what we do." Indeed. 

Washington Post, "One Year Later Assessing Obama: Testing the Promise of Pragmatism" -- Dan Balz takes a very smart and principled look back over the first year of the Administration, concluding that nearly any President would have made the economic decisions that the President did, as they were needed to avoid calamity. He finds the President's largest struggles coming from Americans who view government as the enemy, and now equate Obama as the President of Big Government. He sees Tuesday's special senatorial election in Massachusetts as an important bellweather to the midterm elections later this year 

• Also, be sure to read David Broder's analysis of the Obama First Year today, "To regain public favor, Obama needs a good economy and jobs" 

The Golden Report for Thursday January 14

In attempting to restore the namesake of this blog- and how it all began- today I'll start a series posting articles and providing brief comments on stories in the news that have caught my attention.

To be honest, I had planned to do this on Monday but like so many things- this blog and re-invigorated online social media presence included, time has a way of getting away from me as I juggle many different projects, roles, responsibilities and events.

Of course, it has also been a very busy week in the news, especially with Tuesday's major earthquake in Haiti. The response effort to that disaster will be in the news for days. However, as I've worked from home today- and kept the 24-hour news networks on in the background throughout- that is not by any chance the only major issue, today.

Just now, it is being reported that the Homeland Security Department is ordering increased security, one day after we learned of a renewed threat from Al-Qaeda in Yemen. Also today, the President is huddling with Congressional leaders as reports emerge of a deal on historic health care reform legislation (the President goes to speak to House Democrats later tonight). Then, there's the big announcement today about a financial crisis responsibility fee- and the second day of hearings of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in Washington (not to forget yesterday's report from the Council of Economic Advisors touting 2 million jobs created or saved as a result of the ARRA). And to top it all off, TMZ is now reporting that Jay Leno has struck a deal with NBC for a one-hour primetime program at 11:35pm- a move that will essentially boot Conan O'Brien off the air after just a few months as host of The Tonight Show.

We do live in extraordinary times.

Next week will mark the one-year anniversary of President Obama's inauguration. Throughout the week, whitehouse.gov has been hosting video progress reports with key Administration officials. Earlier this week, watchdog groups released their "grades" of the Administration's transparency, and gave an "A" in three key categories. As I wrote about earlier this week, the President's Open Government Directive is a huge step forward- now comes the hard task of implementation.

Other articles that caught my eye:

"Google's Threat Echoed Everywhere, Except China" (NYTimes) looking at another major story this week: Google's threat to pull out of China.

" 'Hillary effect' cited for increase in female ambassadors to the US" (Washington Post)

"Will the Sunday Show's Every Change" (POLITICO)

"Mr. Smith Rewrites the Constitution" (Op/Ed by Thomas Geoghegan in the NY Times)

"A Year of Terror Plots, Through A Second Prism" (News Analysis/NYTimes)

The Golden Report for Monday October 20

As we near the two-week mark before Election Night, the week that began with media space to fill now has a news story to populate the second half of this week leading into the critical second-to-last weekend. Obama will go off the trail Thursday-Saturday, as it is currently planned & announced by his campaign tonight, to return to Hawaii and visit his ailing grandmother. Coming in the intensity of the final push of the political campaign here are some immediate initial observations:

·         Timing is everything—it eats up the second half of this week and Obama can return to the campaign trail in time to begin a week-long closing argument leading into a national get-out-the vote push unlike any we have seen before.

·         It leaves an Obama vacuum—if Obama will not be on camera who will step in? Biden? Michelle? Obama surrogates?

·         It makes it very difficult for the McCain Campaign to launch any aggressive end-of-campaign attack. It was rumored early today in some papers that McCain was rethinking his pledge not to discuss Jeremiah Wright. If he were to start that this week it would be difficult to sustain while Obama is dealing with a family crisis.

·         Where do the media turn to their story? Do they turn to their investigative units—working leads on McCain—or Obama? Same sort of difficulty may apply to newspaper editors before publishing any new revealing inflammatory details about Obama. Might be a time to look at the McCain campaign in a closer light—to turn full attention on them—which can be a mixed blessing

·         It presents an opening for McCain. With your opponent stepping down, the stage is his to do and say what he wishes. There are some limitations (see above), but this could be his last best chance at seizing control of this race

·         Look at what this says about the confidence of the Obama Campaign at this time—if he were behind and in desperate need of every possible moment on the trail then even in a family emergency the campaign would think twice about four full days off the trail

·         Consider this thought: Obviously Obama is leaving the campaign for an urgent family crisis but his doing so may have no effect on the actual race because most Americans have already, after a nearly two year campaign, made up their minds already. Perhaps as many as 25 or 30 percent of the voters in the states with early voting will have already voted by election day. Maybe Powell did seal the deal—then Obama goes away for a little—and then returns to have a get out the vote operation and lead us right into Election Night.

 

One curious element: if his grandmother’s health is dire, then why wait until Thursday to go to Hawaii—and why keep campaign stops tomorrow in Florida and Wednesday in Leesburg, Virginia & Iowa?

 

MICHELE BACHMANN, probably just better known as “The [or That] Representative from Minnesota” is the subject of an e-mail from the Obama Campaign this evening. Her interview late last week on Hardball in which she threw the kitchen sink at Obama and called introduced the McCain-surrogate & Palin argument about two Americas, one pro and one Anti, came just before Nancy Pfotenhauer said to MSNBC’s Kevin Corke over the weekend that there were two Virginias, one real and one Anti.

As an aside, these weekend comments occurred before Colin Powell gave his critical endorsement of Barack Obama on Sunday morning and, in the process, decried this type of campaigning from the McCain side.

 

From the David Plouffe e-mail:

 

XXXXX --

In the past few days, we've heard the most divisive statements so far from the McCain campaign and its surrogates.

Governor Palin said she likes to visit the "pro-America areas" of our country.

Now, a Republican representative and McCain surrogate from Minnesota is accusing Barack and other congressional Democrats of being "anti-American."

Watch Rep. Bachmann unleash her absurd scare tactics. Then make a donation of $5 or more to defeat the tired old politics of fear and division.

The McCain campaign and its surrogates just don't get it.

To solve the serious issues facing our country, we need a leader who will bring us together, not tear us apart.

Comments like these are a cheap ploy to divide and undermine the movement you have built.

The McCain campaign and its surrogates are trying to move our country in the wrong direction, and they remind us of exactly what's at stake in this election.

Make a donation of $5 or more now to stand up for the America we believe in -- where despite differences of opinion, we can always find common ground to work for the change we need:


Thanks for your support,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

P.S. -- Your donation will come at an especially important time.

On Friday, we are making final decisions about funding for field operations and crucial get out the vote efforts for the last days of the election. Make a statement and help strengthen this campaign in the final stretch:

 

After announcing a $150 million toll in the month of September, it is a little peculiar that this is the second fundraising e-mail from the Obama Campaign today; both asked supporters for only $5 before a weekend deadline.

 

To today’s tracking polls, including a new daily tracking poll which will be conducted through the election from ABC News & the Washington Post:

 

Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 50%/McCain 46%

Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 47%/McCain 42%

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 52%/McCain 43%

ABC News/Washington Post Daily Tracking: Obama 53%/McCain 44%

GWU/Battleground Daily Tracking Poll: Obama 49%/McCain 45%

 

Although some fluctuation is expected, and when taken as a whole these polls are almost where they were throughout last week, the internal numbers show some tightening as a result of a gain by McCain. According to Politico’s Gameday scorecard, Obama won the day. And according to the Real Clear Politics electoral map over the last few days, Minnesota has gone from Lean Obama to Solid Obama (10/20), Montana from Solid McCain to Lean McCain (10/19), North Dakota from Lean McCain to Toss-Up (10/17), Florida from Lean Obama to Toss-Up (10/15) and Washington from Lean Obama to Solid Obama (10/15). According to CQ Politics, the following states are rated “no clear favorite:” Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia

 

THE BIGGEST NEWS ABOVE IS FROM NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A TOSS-UP STATE

 

Two big candidate surrogate items today:

Hillary Clinton campaigned with Obama in Florida today, on the first day of that state’s early voting (Nevada is also now open for voting). For the first joint appearance with Obama since the event in Unity, New Hampshire this summer, Clinton came out as a solid attack dog—the numbers for former Hillary supporters who are now backing Obama are almost seamlessly in line with his poll numbers among women generally (remember that this runs contrary to the reasoning that McCain is thought to have used—if reasoning is the right word—when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate in September) and both Bill & Hillary Clinton are now campaigning forcefully in the final two weeks for Obama. Likely struck with the prospect of finally returning the Democrats to power, and sensing that it is within their grasp to help make it happen, expect that any further reconciliation will occur very quickly.

 

And the McCain Campaign announced that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, apparently no longer sequestered in California as a result of a budget impasse, will campaign in Columbus Ohio for John McCain on Halloween. Your blogger will also be in Columbus on that day and will try in whatever way possible to attend this event.  

The Golden Report for Saturday October 18

Tomorrow morning we very well could have a game changing/October Surprise moment in our campaign when Colin Powell goes on Brokaw’s Meet the Press. The language that he chooses to use will be very important—will he unequivocally endorse Obama, will he indicate that he has qualms about supporting McCain, or will he remain elusive? Moreover, what are his thoughts about the war in Iraq, Iran, his treatment by the Bush Administration—does he shed any his tenuous time as Secretary of State and does he provide an assessment as to how Condoleezza Rice is performing in her role? Further, what does Powell indicate his future plans are as a very popular American figure—will he return to public service, rising to the challenges that this country faces, in the next Administration or will he remain in private/philanthropic life? A big morning on Meet—analyzed immediately afterward with a great panel including Andrea Mitchell & Joe Scarborough, among others.

 

If a Powell endorsement of Obama occurs, it could provide a bloc of media coverage for several days—as it has in the last two leading up to Sunday. Pundits will weigh in and columnists will provide their take. It very well could dominate the first half of the second-to-last full week of the election. No doubt it is being primed for maximum efficiency, coming after the final debate, at a moment when Obama’s support seems to be peaking (with some thinking that it may be doing so too early) AND (but this last one is probably by coincidence), the morning after Sarah Palin grabs attention on Saturday Night Live. In terms of timing, the endorsement is planned perfectly.

 

The endorsement may help to shore up to the support of independent voters who still have concerns about Obama’s national security/foreign policy credentials. It may serve the purpose of what the July international trip was suppose to do in the minds of the undecided/unsure voter. Watch to see if there is any “Powell bump” in public opinion tracking polls or national/swing state polling over the next week.  (and a note about polling: we will reach a point in about a week when any faith that we have put into polling throughout this election—which should have been very little—has to completely go away. Polling in the last week of a presidential election is not (unless, of course, it is) an accurate predictor of the national result in a few day’s time. What it does it drive momentum and speculation—and that angle can never be underestimated.

 

But the most important thing that an Powell endorsement does is deal a crucial, perhaps fatal, blow to the John McCain Campaign. These are two men who both served their country and who value loyalty—to have one so publicly break from the other would almost be akin to a previous big-name endorsee changing their minds and switching sides. What is the McCain response? And will Obama counter with video clips and statements of favorable comments that McCain has made through the years about Colin Powell? It will be hard to spin an endorsement such as Powell’s—and the media will be very quick to catch on to the story.

 

The Golden Report for Thurs Oct 16

It’s all about Joe the Plumber.

 

After 20 months of presidential campaigning in 2007 & 2008: a full slate of candidates from both parties, the rise and fall of Hillary Clinton (and, to a lesser extent, Mike Huckabee & Mitt Romney), the evolution of the debate over the war in Iraq which migrated to a debate over the financial health of the American economy, a protracted Democratic Primary Season, four debates, Jeremiah Wright, Sarah Palin, “The One” and “Bomb Bomb Iran,” a celebrity video by Paris Hilton and the latest creation by the Jib Jab Brothers, has the presidential race—inherently meant to be about substance over style (although we know the latter always wins) and about issues versus personalities (a statement which is, again, idealistic), been reduced to one man and one man only: Joe the Plumber?

 

Watch the morning shows. Watch cable news. Listen to John McCain or watch the Third and final Presidential Candidates Debate and you wouldn’t know otherwise.

 

Yet, of course, Joe is a symbol. And he’s a different type of symbol than the McCain Campaign would like voters to believe. Their intention was to make him a reflection of the struggles facing the good ol’ working class in the United States who would suffer under an Obama Administration with particular regard to tax policy. The hockey mom & Joe Six-Pack that the McCain Campaign has been trying to reach, based in part on the problems that Obama encountered with working class blue-collar voters during the primary battle with Hillary Clinton, is the demographic that the McCain Campaign believes will swing the election.

 

Almost as soon as we heard Joe’s name mentioned more than any other in Wednesday’s debate, we learned a little more about Joe and it wasn’t the type of news that the McCain Campaign would like us to hear:

 

From the Politico Story, “McCain’s plumber no ordinary Joe,”

“A day after making Joseph Wurzelbacher famous, referencing him in the debate almost two dozen times as someone who would pay higher taxes under Barack Obama, McCain learned the fine print Thursday on the plumber’s not-so-tidy personal story: He owes back taxes. He is not a licensed plumber. And it turns out that Wurzelbacher makes less than $250,000 a year, which means he would receive a tax cut if Obama were elected president.”

 

So, now, Joe the Plumber becomes a symbol for the McCain Campaign in this election. It reveals to us a lot about the internal organization, structure and management of the McCain Camp. First, it is clear that (just like the choice of Sarah Palin as VP) the campaign did not adequately vet Joe before introducing him on the national stage. As a result, they become responsible for anything that comes out about Joe and it makes their original objective muddled. This type of behavior has been repeated time and again throughout the course of this campaign and when the book on the race is written this will be a key element to explore.

 

The big question right now is: will Joe the Plumber relate to voters, especially independents in the swing states? Or will it be seen as a stunt, almost comedic, that does more damage to McCain? On tonight’s Thursday night edition of Saturday Night Live “Weekend Update,” Joe was mocked during the opening segment. Watch to see the full program on Saturday night to see if the new revelations about Joe make their way into the script. Also on SNL, significant time devoted towards mocking the “crazy lady from the McCain rally” who called Obama an “arab” last week and forced McCain to defend his rival on stage.

 

The Golden Report for Wednesday October 15

Special Post Debate Analysis

 

1)       Obama won. No other way to spin this tonight but it was a clear victory. He looked more presidential, he answered the question, he very effectively answered questions about William Ayers and ACORN and he was in control.

2)       McCain was angry. He threw everything at Obama tonight but lacked a clear, coherent cohesion between the attacks. Put another way, he attacked on ACORN and Ayers and voting records in the IL Senate and taxes but never tied them all together, using the argument that they all show a lack of judgment, or an inexperience, or raise questions for the voters to consider.  This was the last debate. The entire debate should have been McCain’s closing argument, but instead it looked like he was still introducing new material. Which brings us to an interesting point: who were the audiences that the candidates were targeting tonight? Looking at what they said, it looked like McCain was speaking to the Republican BASE, to shore up their support, speaking to the Likely McCain voter to make sure that they don’t move and not necessarily as much to the Lean McCain or Undecided Voter (who may have been turned off by the kitchen sink strategy we saw at the debate). Obama on the other hand was speaking to the independent, when he said “I agree with Sen. McCain on this but I disagree with how to get there” it was a perfect example of the type of approach and line that Independent Voters love. Tonight, in his closing argument, Obama was trying to expand his level of support—reaching out to those that are still on the fence but who may, in the final 19 days, cross over. He’s looking at states like Georgia, where McCain holds a tenuous eight-point lead—if tonight’s debate helped to cut that down to 6 or 5 percent than it is very possible that given the right conditions over the next 2 ½ weeks the electoral map could be expanded even beyond the Obama win that it shows now. This speaks volumes to where the candidates are at this point in the race, what they need to win, and how and to whom they will deliver their closing arguments.

3)       The debate was not a game changer. Even the media expectations leading into the debate were tampered down because the hurdles for McCain to climb were too great. He needed Obama to make a catastrophic mistake, or he needed to grab with a stunning announcement and neither occurred. We could see that in his answer to the very first question. So without another scheduled game changing moment in sight, the McCain Campaign is running out of cards, running out of money and running out of time. The course of the polling is not likely to change. The media attention (see below) is probably going to begin looking beyond McCain and, without an audience of 70 million Americans at another moment before Election Night---and without the funds to buy a ½ hour of network air time---he is running out of opportunities to connect with the American People. Case-in-Point which WILL be looked at retrospectively to show the state of the McCain Campaign right now: ACORN was a potential moment for them because it developed name recognition with lots of Americans, even being mentioned on ESPN in a non-political context. But the lack of coordination and organization within the campaign prevented ACORN from becoming a defining story and any last hope that the campaign had to move it along failed tonight when Obama gave a very convincing defense, his best to date.

4)       Looking Beyond the Election. Watch to see if, following tonight’s debate and in the closing days of the election, a media narrative develops—or even a campaign narrative (which runs the risk of being presumptuous) of Obama looking ahead to his Administration. Perhaps outlining in his closing argument his plan for the First 100 Days—before Election Day. Using the backdrop of a fiscal and economic crisis, he may propose detailed economic plans, a team of advisors, hold a summit etc…or the media could begin the speculation of what will be on the Obama Agenda. As described earlier in the week, this runs the risk of having some voters not turn out or even turning some voters off, but it may convince and reassure just as many and might actually increase the undecided vote—because unlike the last two elections, the undecided might end up voting for the candidate “just because he is going to win,” and if that candidate is perceived to be Obama, the election will follow.

5)       Where do we go from here? Watch the schedules for the campaigns carefully from here on out. Which states? How many stops? How many people? Watch for any day of or last minute schedule changes—these will be our best indications of the internal polling and the internal feelings of the campaigns. Palin is going to New Hampshire this weekend for the first time, we can analyze that as a start and see that McCain/Palin are still putting resources in a state that the polls have shifted Blue, and which was a Blue State in ’04…but she is only going for a few hours which means it is not a primary focus. Still, with limited time, shouldn’t the campaign be defending the Red States they need to hold instead of the Blue states they wish to pick up? Watch the asset movements too…today we heard that some Obama staff were moving out of Michigan to Ohio & Wisconsin—a sign of confidence in the state. Confidence and concern are to words we will need to describe these states going forward through the next two weeks.

6)       Obama still hasn’t released his fundraising numbers for September yet, and they are expected to be astronomical. They might have saved them until after the debate as a security policy in case something went wrong. They could be released tomorrow, to drive the Obama narrative further, or on Friday to drive the weekend conversation.

7)       This is really it. No more debates. Both candidates do speak in NYC tomorrow night at the Al Smith Dinner—but they will appear separately. Then it’s on the trail for the weekend and leading into the final days of October. For a campaign, it really doesn’t get more exciting than this.

8)       And we have a new addition to the lexicon of Election 2008: Joe The Plumber!

 

The Golden Report for Tuesday October 14

Three weeks from tonight, at this hour, we should be very close to knowing who the 44^th President of the United States will be. Tomorrow night, at this hour, we will know if the third and final presidential candidates debate will prove in any way to change the trajectory and dynamics that this race is currently on. If it does, then McCain will ride a wave of fresh new media coverage and experience a tightening, to his benefit, in the polls. If it doesn’t, then McCain will have to find another opportunity with less than 20 days to go to capture the attention of the American people, particularly the American Independent Voter and reverse their current presidential preference. It is no easy task. If we look solely at the polls however, which is seemingly how some people including most of the cable talking heads determine the current leader in the presidential contest, it is worth noting that the extraordinary high that Obama is at right now (53-39 in the NYT/CBS News Poll released tonight), will likely NOT remain at these levels through the entirety of the next three weeks. We’ve seen this with the daily tracking polls, what was a 10 or 8 point lead one day is, a few days later, a 4 or 6—that is just the nature of polling and the nature of the highest lead of the election, it comes in ebbs & flows. Look for a day within the 20 that remain to have at least a portion of it driven by Obama’s “falling” polling numbers.

 

Going inside the NYT/CBS News numbers, which are shocking enough to drive the pre-debate political conversation tomorrow, we see some striking changes from a poll taken EARLIER THIS MONTH when Obama was already in a comfortable lead.

 

• Obama support among women—and particularly former supporters of Hillary Clinton, has grown to above 50% and 80% respectively
• McCain’s support among self-described moderates has dropped from 40%-28%
• McCain’s support among white evangelicals has decreased from 75% to 63%
• Obama has 63% support among first time voters—flip the order of the digits and you get McCain’s number (36%)

 

Perhaps the most important story that you will read all day, “Poll: Obama leads in 3 of 4 key Bush counties,” by Alexander Burns, Pollitico, “Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.”

 

And our attention turns to Hempstead, New York. Which John McCain will show up for the debate? Will it be the game changer that the media will be looking for? And where do we go from here? Lots of questions and a lot of anticipation leading up to tomorrow night.

 

The Golden Report for Monday October 13

Some thoughts tonight, just one day before the three-week mark, on perceptions of winners this early.

 

Beginning about last Thursday, major news organizations in this country began writing stories suggesting that the 2008 presidential election was nearing an end and that Barack Obama was to be the winner. There were reports of an “insurmountable” lead and the beginning of a series of questions of mismanagement by the McCain Campaign, especially during the three-week economic crises that we have lived through. Although there was a hint of caution  in the reporting through the weekend, it is beyond clear that there is a reasonable outcome to this election already determined and that there is now an expected winner. There are many dangers to this media coverage and I’ll outline a few of those points here:

·         The election is far from over. If a week is a lifetime in presidential politics, then we have three left. Think of the next three weeks in two distinct phases. The first is now until Oct. 25/26—when we hit the 10 day mark. This is a time for the final debate (which will likely drive the conversation for the rest of this week), for a change in topic initiated by either campaign (the economy, health care, taxes, Wright) and the high intensity campaigning that we have seen so far—with key visits to swing states and daily statements in response to every news event. Once we hit the 10-day mark, the campaign will take a decisively different tone. The campaigns will shift into a closing arguments phase, most likely with a new stump speech which is reiterated through an advertising and media blitz. Instead of campaigning in swing states, the candidates will barnstorm through them,  most likely hitting 2-4 on a single day—going where their pollsters and strategies calculate that their appearance will make a difference. Even now it is hard to change the candidate-branding that has already taken place during the race but soon it becomes impossible. Of course, we are always watchful for a major game changer, scandal of any kind, a national tragedy, a national security event whether internal or external—any of these events brings us into unchartered territory and changes any presumptions that we may have about the trajectory of the race

·         If the media called a winner before the voting began would the voter who is already skeptical that his or her vote makes a difference actually turn out to vote? That is the big question and the campaigns, even with their massive turnout operations, will find it exceedingly difficult  to convince the fickle voter (especially the first-time voter) to turn out if the media reports that the election is a foregone conclusion. This is of special importance in the key battleground states, especially those where Obama enjoys a healthy lead in the polls right now. In the end, this race will revolve around turnout and during the primary season the Obama Campaign mastered that operation—can they replicate it on a single day on a national level to the degree that they need to win? There are no guarantees, and this is the 270-vote question.

·         We’re beginning to hear rumbles from Conservative circles, but expect to hear more of the liberal biased media storyline if the media stops reporting on the race and begins to cover an Obama transition (or treats the election as a coronation). This would be simply irresponsible for the media to do—and I use the word media loosely. The veteran campaign reporters will urge continued reporting, as Dan Balz does in tomorrow’s Post. And there is no better time to be a political journalist than right now. There is no better time to pursue every lead from the entire presidential campaign season. Now, more than ever, in these three weeks, the American people need a responsible and aggressive media. To shirk on that responsibility would cause a permanent media realignment even if we don’t see the fruition of a political one this year

·         As a corollary, this provides the McCain Campaign yet another opportunity to raise the issue of a media bias to rally their base—it’s been a successful strategy so far. And although rallying the base is important, as I have previously noted, that is not what is going to move poll numbers or make McCain’s position any stronger. He needs to earn back lost ground among Independents and then break and gain ground there on his own. By most polls, McCain is behind by double digits with Independents which makes his task all the more complicated.

 

Rasmussen/Fox News Swing State Polling released at 6pm today:

FLORIDA: Obama 51%/McCain 46%

OHIO: Obama 49%/McCain 47%

NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 48%/McCain 48%

VIRGINIA: Obama 50%/McCain 47%

MISSOURI: Obama 50%/McCain 47%

 

The Big Talker: ABC/Washington Post Poll: Obama 53/McCain 43

The Golden Report for Sunday October 12

It’s a good time to step back and pose some hypotheticals as we approach the three week mark. Here are some thoughts (in no particular order)

 

What if Hillary Clinton had been the Democratic nominee during this current economic crisis? How would she have handled it—better or worse than Obama—many will say that they would have handled it about the same way. Would the Bill Clinton economic policies—Greenspan, et. al.—had become a larger issue if Hillary had been the nominee. Would she, in some way, had been blamed for the policies put in faith by her husband—and would the McCain campaign had used that against her? Would she had been more compassionate with the everyday down home blue collar “Joe six pack” voter and taken a commanding lead of the race that way?

 

My thoughts are on Hillary Clinton because she appeared on stage with Joe Biden today in Scranton Pennsylvania. Watching her reactions, it was clear that thoughts of the presidency or vice presidency were running through her head. But if the change/reform message that Obama is on had been in anyway derailed by a trip down the path of Bill Clinton economic policies, then the decision to not pick Hillary Clinton looks even wiser in retrospect.

 

Speaking of the Biden/Clinton rally, it has to be mentioned that Joe Biden is completely in his element out on the campaign trail—he fired up the crowd today and completely seized the momentum that he sensed from them, in his home town nonetheless. At one point when the crowd starting booing McCain’s economic policies he very confidently raised his hands as if to say, “It is okay to boo but I want to finish my statement,” and the crowd immediately hushed as if mesmerized. And why wouldn’t Biden love every minute? This is his last national election for sure, and he has worked his way up to this point through an entire career, marred by tragedy but also patched with periodic moments of the public limelight. Now, Biden has the limelight all to his own and he is as confident and controlling as ever.

 

AND he hasn’t made a serious gaffe yet. Sure, he had the remark about FDR and Televisions (a momentary forgetting of the Fireside Chat) but there have been no YouTube moments and nothing for the Obama Campaign to fret about.

 

What if…McCain had chosen Mitt Romney as his vice presidential running mate as many had suspected and many Republicans had hoped? Certainly, Romney was not McCain’s favorite pick—they just don’t have the chemistry to get along—but imagine the economic argument that Romney could have brought to the McCain side. In an economic crisis that lacked a spokesperson, lacked a leader, Romney—on behalf of his running mate, a beleaguered Republican party and a lameduck Republican incumbent. Romney no doubt would have kept Michigan in play for McCain. He would have provided legitimacy instead of the mockery that the campaign has experienced from Sarah Palin. We are beginning to hear a louder cry, where before it was only a soft murmur, from the group that can best be described as the Washington Republican Elites…the thinkers who have been around and seen the party through decades of campaigns, that the Palin Pick was a fatal flaw. It might have brought a campaign back from a mid-summer slump, but the enthusiasm  could not carry past the four-week point. Then Palin became a laughing stock, she’s been discredited by the media (she still hasn’t held many interviews, news conferences, or answered unscripted questions…has she had an interview since the debate other than FOX?), mocked on all of the comedy shows, and even boo’ed on center ice at a Philadelphia Flyers game last night. One can only wonder how things would have been different if McCain had picked a different running mate.

 

This leads us to the giant What If question…What if Romney had been the Republican nominee? And this brings us the larger—maybe the largest---paradox about this race. If the economy had been in serious crisis during the primary season, and banks had been failing as we have seen over the last month, would John McCain or Barack Obama had won their party’s respective nominations? Probably not. Neither have distinguished economic bona fides—and all faced challengers within their party how would have risen to the moment and seemed a more justifiable choice. One wonders how things would be different, not only in terms of the race, but in terms of the economy---as we look for an answer to the question breaking this Sunday night: If the Federal Government is set to announce a “Comprehensive” Fiscal Overhaul on Tuesday, as reported on CNBC during a special report tonight, then why hasn’t the response over the last month been comprehensive? And what kind of damage was done before the crisis was deemed large enough for a “comprehensive” response?” It is the classic example of a vacuum of leadership.

 

It’s easy—and quite fun---to play the what if game because it provides hours of conversation material which may come in handy should Election Night turn very long and fresh material dry up in the early morning hours. Back to reality, and a brief observation about the great time that we are living in, in the midst of a presidential race which could only happen in this remarkable country. After nearly two years of campaigning, millions of miles crossed around the country, an extraordinary primary season, debates, town hall meetings, interviews, world events, game changers that turned out to be and game changers that did not, and the introduction of so many terrific characters, we are nearing the end. It is such a purely American tradition to see candidates campaigning door to door, holding rallies, shaking hands, in the crispness of the autumn air in this country. It’s a great feeling to watch and be a part of. This is how we—this country—elects its next leader. This is how we elect our Representatives. We don’t do it through intimidation or fraud and forgery (although just like the best novels, we have our fair share of all in our history), instead we leave it to the wisdom and ingenuity of the individual voter, to make a decision that will affect and their collective communities.